Europe Power Long-term Sensitivity: Impacts of Commodity Price Variability

Report Summary:

Commodity price volatility - gas in particular - has been a major influence on European power market dynamics and price formation in recent years. The sensitivity analysis presented here quantifies the impact of commodity price variations in 15 European power markets to 2050. The underlying market background presented for capacity & demand is unchanged from the November 2023 base case outlook, while we have updated the base case commodity price assumptions to reflect significant short-term changes. This 'fuel-adjusted' base case outlook is then supplemented with high and low commodity price sensitivities to 2050.