Middle East and North Africa Pay TV Forecasts

MENA's pay TV revenues will fall by $1.6 billion between peak year 2016 and 2029, mainly due to the OTT push and widespread piracy. Pay TV revenues for 20 MENA countries will drop by 43% between 2016 ($3.8 billion) and 2029 ($2.2 billion). This comes despite the number of pay TV subscribers growing by 3 million over the same period to 18 million - so ARPUs will fall.

Thirteen of the 20 countries will lose revenues between 2023 and 2029. Turkey and Israel together will supply nearly half of the 2029 total.

Pay TV revenues for the 13 Arabic-speaking countries will be $802 million by 2029; half of the $1,570 million recorded in 2016. Turkish revenues will reach $707 million in 2029; $203 million lower than 2016. Pay TV revenues in Israel will drop from $1.14 billion to $376 million over the same period.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: "Legitimate pay TV penetration has always been low in most MENA countries, but the decline is accelerating as pay TV subscribers convert to OTT platforms."