Global Direct-to-Cell Market: 2024-2029

Description

KEY STATISTICS
Cumulative operator revenue 2025-2029:	$2.8bn
Total number of direct-to-cell connections by 2029:	63m
2024 to 2029 market growth:	479%
Forecast period:	2024-2029

Overview

Our newest "Direct-to-Cell" research provides market stakeholders, such as mobile network operators and satellite network operators, with key analysis of the future of this rapidly emerging market. The market-leading report evaluates the future prospects for the ecosystem through comprehensive market data and 5-year forecasts for the total number of connections, revenue and data generated by direct-to-cell networks.

The study also provides strategic recommendations on partnerships and go-to-market strategies for network operators looking to launch a direct-to-cell service; split by channels such as mobile subscriptions, mobile broadband and enterprise IoT. The study considers various elements that will impact the growth of direct-to-cell services, such as the future of successful launches of satellites, the willingness of mobile users to adopt satellite connectivity, and the major applications that will drive demand for future adoption.

The suite includes both a data deliverable, sizing the market and providing key forecast data across 60 countries and several different segments, as well as a strategy and trends document which gives a complete assessment of the key trends, challenges and key recommendations for stakeholders. Collectively, they provide a critical tool for understanding this rapidly emerging market, allowing network operators and technology vendors to shape their future strategy.

Key Features

Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations: In-depth analysis of key development opportunities and key findings within the direct-to-cell market, accompanied by strategic recommendations for mobile network operators and satellite network operators. It contains an analysis of the commercial services and business models that position commercial satellite services well for future growth of direct-to-cell solutions.
Benchmark Industry Forecasts: Our comprehensive industry data and forecasts provide analysis for future growth opportunities in the market. Readers will benefit from country specific forecasts for connections, revenue and data generated by direct to cell connectivity.
Country Readiness Index: Juniper Research has leveraged our Country Readiness Index to provide insight into which countries are most prepared for commercial direct-to-cell services, including the requirement for mass geographical coverage, affordability and device-level support. This enables readers to gain a thorough understanding of the current development timelines for 60 select countries and the most successful strategies for launching a direct-to-cell service.
Key Direct-to-Cell Partnership Case Studies: Juniper Research has included case studies on key partnerships by satellite network operators; providing a thorough evaluation of their market prospects and potential future monetisation strategies. These case studies provide analysis of the addressable market, and how these partnerships will provide a framework for integrating cellular networks, terrestrial networks and handheld phones to create a commercially viable service.

Market Data & Forecasts

The market-leading research suite for the direct-to-cell market includes access to the full set of forecast data of 51 tables and over 23,200 datapoints. Metrics in the research suite include:

Total Number of Direct-to-Cell Connections
Total APRC (average revenue per connection) for Direct-to-Cell Connections
Total Operator Revenue from Direct-to-Cell Connections
Total Data Generated by Direct-to-Cell Connections

These metrics cover the following industries:

Enterprise Connectivity & IoT
Mobile Subscriptions
Residential Broadband

Juniper Research Interactive Forecast Excel contains the following functionality:

Statistics Analysis: Users benefit from the ability to search for specific metrics, displayed in for all regions and countries across the data period. Graphs are easily modified and can be exported to the clipboard.
Country Data Tool: This tool lets users look at metrics for all regions and countries in the forecast period. Users can refine the metrics displayed via a search bar.
Country Comparison Tool: Users can select countries and compare each of them for specific countries. The ability to export graphs is included in this tool.
What-if Analysis: Here, users can compare forecast metrics against their own assumptions. 5 interactive scenarios

SAMPLE VIEW

Market Trends & Forecasts PDF Report:

A comprehensive analysis of the current market landscape, alongside strategic recommendations and a walk-through of the forecasts.

1. Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations

1.1. Key Takeaways
1.2. Strategic Recommendations

2. Market Outlook & Monetisation Models

2.1. Introduction to Direct-to-Cell Communications
- Figure 2.1: Total Number of Direct-to-Cell Connections by 2029 (m), Split by 8 Key Regions:
- Figure 2.2: Direct-to-Cell Value Chain
- 2.1.1. Spectrum Licencing and Usage
  - Figure 2.3: Key Satellite Bands
  - i. The FCC's SCS
2.2. Market Growth for Direct-to-Cell Communications
- Figure 2.4: Global Number of Satellites in Orbit, Split by LEO, MEO (Medium Earth Orbit), and GEO (Geostationary Earth Orbit), 2021-2019
- Figure 2.5: AST SpaceMobile's BlueWalker 3 Test Satellite
- i. The Cost of Satellite Launches & Securing ROI
  - Figure 2.6: Cumulative Investment in Satellite Launches, Split by 8 Key Regions, 2024-2029
- 2.2.2. The Total Addressable Market for Direct-to-Cell Services
  - i. Consumer Direct-to-Cell
    - Figure 2.7: Global Number of Smartphones (m), Split by Compatible and Non-compatible Direct-to-Cell Devices, 2024-2029
  - ii. Enterprise Direct-to-Cell Market
    - Figure 2.8: Total Number of Cellular IoT Connections (m), Split by Wireless Technology, 2020-2028
  - iii. LPWA Networks
  - iv. LTE-M
    - Figure 2.9: Key LTE-M Use Cases
2.3. Key Direct-to-Cell Services
- 2.3.1. SMS
  - Figure 2.10: Total SMS Traffic (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2024-2029
- 2.3.2. Voice
  - Figure 2.11: Total Operator Voice Minutes (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2022-2027
- 2.3.3. Mobile Data
  - Figure 2.12: Total Data Generated by Cellular Devices (PB), Split by 3 Categories, 2020-2029

3. Industry Analysis

3.1. Direct-to-Cell Industry Analysis
- Figure 3.1: Global GDP ($bn), Split by 14 Key Sectors, 2013-2023
- Figure 3.2: Top 10 Countries by GDP Attributable to Agriculture ($m) & Proportion of Total GDP Attributable to Agriculture (%) in 2023

4. Regional Readiness Index

4.1. Direct-to-Cell Country Readiness Index
- Figure 4.1: Countries in Each Region
- Table 4.2: Juniper Research Direct-to-Cell Readiness Index: Scoring Criteria
- Figure 4.3: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index: Direct-to-Cell 2024
- Table 4.4: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index: Country Categorisation
- 4.1.1. Focus Markets
  - Figure 4.5: Total Satellite Service Provider Revenue from Connections Connecting to Direct-to-Cell Services ($m), Split by 9 Select Focus Markets, 2024-2029
- 4.1.2. Select Focus Market Analysis
  - i. US
  - ii. China
  - iii. EU
  - iv. Japan
  - v. Australia
- 4.1.3. Key Focus Market Trends
  - i. Affluent Regions
    - Figure 4.6: GDP per Capita ($) in 2024, Split by 16 Leading Focus Markets
  - ii. Developed National Space Programmes
  - iii. Need for Wide Geographic Coverage
    - Figure 4.7: Focus Market Country Land Mass
- 4.1.4. Growth Markets
  - i. Long Term Growth Opportunities with Large User Bases
    - Figure 4.8: Total Mobile Subscriptions (m), Split by 10 Growth Markets, 2024-2029
  - ii. Lagging Telecommunications Development Ecosystems
- 4.1.5. Key Strategies to Maximising ROI in Growth Markets
  - i. Early Mover Advantage Is Not Always Advantageous
    - Figure 4.9: Monthly Subscriber ARPU ($), Split by 10 Growth Markets, 2024-2029
  - ii. Pricing of Services Will be Instrumental in Fostering Adoption
    - Figure 4.10: Average Direct-to-Cell Revenue per Active User ($) in 2029, Split by 10 Growth Markets
  - iii. Leading Players will Not Wait for Regulation, Regulatory Bodies Must Keep Pace
- 4.1.6. Saturated Market
  - Figure 4.11: Total Direct-to-Cell Revenue from Select Saturated Markets in 2029 ($m)
- 4.1.7. Developing Markets
  - Table 4.12: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Focus Markets
  - Table 4.13: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Growth Markets
  - Table 4.14: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Saturated Markets
  - Table 4.15: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Developing Markets

5. Market Forecasts & Key Takeaways

5.1. Introduction to Direct-to-Cell Market Forecasts
- 5.1.1. Data & Forecast Methodology
  - Figure 5.1: Mobile Subscriber Direct-to-Cell Forecast Methodology
  - Figure 5.2: Residential Broadband Direct-to-Cell Forecast Methodology
  - Figure 5.3: Enterprise Direct-to-Cell Forecast Methodology
5.2. Market Summary
- 5.2.1. Total Number of Direct-to-Cell Connections
  - Figure & Table 5.4: Total Number of Direct-to-Cell Connections (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2024-2029
- 5.2.2. Total Revenue from Direct-to-Cell Communications
  - Figure & Table 5.5: Total Satellite Service Provider Revenue from All Connections Connecting to Direct-to-Cell Services ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2024-2029
  - Table 5.6: Total Satellite Service Provider Revenue from All Connections Connecting to Direct-to-Cell Services ($m), Split by 3 Key Categories, 2024-2029
5.3. Smartphone Direct-to-Cell Communications
- 5.3.1. Smartphone Direct-to-Cell Connections
  - Figure & Table 5.7: Total Mobile Subscribers that Connect to Direct-to-Cell Services (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2024-2029
- 5.3.2. Total Revenue from Smartphone Direct-to-Cell Communications
  - Figure & Table 5.8: Total Satellite Service Provider Revenue from Mobile Subscription Connecting to Direct-to-Cell Services ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2024-2029
5.4. Broadband Direct-to-Cell
- 5.4.1. Broadband Direct-to-Cell Connections
  - Figure & Table 5.9: Total Number of Residential Direct-to-Cell Broadband Subscriptions (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2024-2029
- 5.4.2. Broadband Direct-to-Cell Revenue
  - Figure & Table 5.10: Total Satellite Service Provider Revenue from Residential Broadband Connection Connecting to Direct-to-Cell Services ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2024-2029
5.5. Enterprise Direct-to-Cell
- 5.5.1. Enterprise Direct-to-Cell Connections
  - Figure & Table 5.11: Total Cellular IoT Connections that Connect to Direct-to-Cell Services (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2024-2029
- 5.5.2. Enterprise Direct-to-Cell Revenue
  - Figure & Table 5.12: Total Satellite Service Provider Revenue from IoT Connections Connecting to Direct-to-Cell Services ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2024-2029