REPORT OVERVIEW
Juniper Research's latest “Mobile Authentication” research provides a comprehensive assessment of the market and industry-specific use cases for mobile authentication types in this invaluable new report. Featuring strategic recommendations for enterprises and mobile operators, as well as a regional analysis expanding to 60 countries across 8 regions, scoring each region on criteria relating to factors influencing the mobile authentication market. This regional assessment leverages market-leading 5-year forecasts including:
- Biometric Capability
- Future Business Prospects
- Innovation in the Market
- Mobile Authentication Revenue
- Prevalence of OTP (One-time Passwords) Voice Calls
- Prevalence of OTT (Over the Top) Authentication Traffic
- SMS Reliance
- SMS Traffic Growth
The report also provides comprehensive 5-year forecasts detailing the significance of SMS to operator authentication revenue. SMS is the most ubiquitous method of authentication globally, due to its widespread adoption and implementation in mobile phones. Furthermore, this report also assesses the impact of emerging authentication channels on the disruption to SMS authentication, including total traffic and revenue.
This research suite includes:
- Market Trends & Strategies (PDF)
- Competitor Leaderboard (PDF)
- Market Data & Forecasting (PDF)
- 5-year Market Sizing & Forecast Interactive Spreadsheet (Excel)
- 12 Months' Access to harvest Online Data Platform
Key Market Statistics
Operator-billed Mobile Authentication Revenue in 2023: | $40.5bn |
Operator-billed Mobile Authentication Revenue in 2028: | $56.4bn |
2023 to 2028 Growth: | 39% |
KEY FEATURES
- Market Outlook: Using robust forecast data to provide an assessment of key market trends, drivers and pain points that are anticipated to impact the growth of the mobile authentication market, including: 7 key authentication channels (SMS, flash calling, mobile identity, number verify, OTP voice, OTT authentication, and device-based biometrics). The report also offers strategic recommendations on how operators can best monetise on authentication traffic and protect their revenue from disruption from newer authentication channels. The key factors influencing the authentication market are as follows:
- API Authentication Measures
- Authentication Regulations
- Biometric Authentication Demand
- Decentralised and Centralised Identity Solutions
- How to Mitigate Against Identity Fraud
- Passwordless Authentication
- SMS Infrastructure Vulnerabilities
- Threats to Operators from Fraud
- Two-factor Authentication/Multi-factor Authentication
- Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Key player capability and capacity assessment of the competitive landscape for 22 leading vendors who provide operators with secure authentication capabilities. Our Competitor Leaderboard scores these companies on a number of criteria, including their size of operations in the space, their extent and breadth of market partnerships, sophistication of their platforms, and Juniper Research's view on each company's innovation and future business prospects. The companies included in Juniper Research's Mobile Authentication Competitor Leaderboard are:
- BICS
- Cisco Webex
- Clickatell
- CM.com
- Comviva
- GMS Worldwide
- Infobip
- Interop Technologies
- Kaleyra
- LINK Mobility
- Mavenir Systems
- MessageBird
- Methics
- Mitto
- Monty Mobile
- Route Mobile
- Sinch
- Syniverse
- Tata Communications
- Telesign
- Twilio
- Vonage
- Mobile Authentication Country-readiness Index: A comprehensive coverage featuring country level data and country rankings on the future of the market; split by 60 key countries. Assessment of each region's full potential, paired with supplementary 5-year forecast data. The criteria include:
- Biometric Capability
- Future Business Prospects
- Innovation in the Market
- Mobile Authentication Revenue
- Prevalence of OTP Voice Calls
- Prevalence of OTT Authentication Traffic
- SMS Reliance
- SMS Traffic Growth
- 5-year Benchmark Forecasts: Comprehensive data for mobile authentication activities such as the number of mobile subscribers, the number of biometrically enabled smartphones, total traffic for each authentication channel, and total revenue from each authentication channel, split by key channels such as device-based biometrics, flash calling, and mobile identity, as well as by the following 60 countries and 8 key regions:
- Latin America:
- Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay
- West Europe:
- Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK
- Central & East Europe:
- Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine
- Far East & China:
- China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea
- Indian Subcontinent:
- Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan
- Rest of Asia Pacific:
- Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam
- Africa & Middle East:
- Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates
KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED
- 1. What will be the fastest-growing mobile authentication channel over the next five years?
- 2. How can operators best position themselves to monetise on the growing mobile authentication traffic?
- 3. What will the global mobile authentication market value be by 2028?
- 4. Which regions present the most opportunities for mobile authentication growth in 2023?
- 5. Who are the leading mobile authentication service providers in 2023?
COMPANIES REFERENCED
- Interviewed: Comviva, Methics, Syniverse, Tata Communications, TeleSign.
- Included in Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: BICS, Cisco Webex, Clickatell, CM.com, Comviva, GMS Worldwide, Infobip, Interop Technologies, Kaleyra, LINK Mobility, Mavenir Systems, MessageBird, Methics, Mitto, Monty Mobile, Route Mobile, Sinch, Syniverse, Tata Communications, TeleSign, Twilio, Vonage.
- Mentioned: Able Device, ABN AMRO Bank, ACL Mobile, ACTITO, Acura Scan, Adax, AfroSaude, AFS (Arab Financial Services), AH to Go, Air Asia, Airtel, Akamai, Al Rayan Bank, Albert Heijn, Aldeamo, Alfa Orascom Telcom, Alfa-Bank Kazakhstan, Allied Bank, Allo, Amazon, Amber Alert, AmeriSave Mortgage, Anam, Apollo Hospitals, Apple, Aramex, ArmenTel, Asia Insurance 1950, Associated Newspapers, AstraZeneca, AT&T, Athonet, AXA, Axiata, Azerfon, Banca Intesa San Paolo, Banca Transilvania, Batelco, Beeline, Best Western, BlaBlaCar, BMW, Booking.com, Bosch Group, BT, Building Blocks, Bukalapak, Burberry, Capitec, CarDekho, CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria), CDK Global, Chatfuel, Chatlayer.ai, China Mobile, Cigna Health, Cites Gestion, CitNOW, Citrus, Clixie, Coca-Cola, COMFY, Crédit Agricole, Crunch, CTI Africa, Curious Thing, Dahmakan, Danfoss, Daraz, DataMix, Dataphiles, Deloitte, Deutsche Post, DHL, Dialogic, Digitel, DinarPAY, DNB Nor, DocPlanner Group, Doctolib, Doctor Anywhere, Domino's, Doxy.me, DPD Group, du, EaseMyTrip.com, Ebury, Econet Wireless, Eloqua, Emirates College of Technology, Etam, Etisalat, Euroconsumers, Eurostar, EVA, Everbridge, Eversource, Expresso, FKP Scorpio, Flipkart, FlySafair, Fokker, Foodora, French Government, FZE UAE, Gamigo, Geocell, Geva Group, Glassdoor, GoDaddy, Google, Goosehead Insurance, Grameenphone, Greenpeace, GTBank, Headsets.com, Healthcare at Home, Heineken, Helsenorge, HeyHi, HF Group, Hotelbeds, Houzz, HP, HR Owen, Huawei, Hutch, Hutchison Telecom, IBM, ICICI Bank, Idea Cellular, IKEA, IMImobile, Indosat, Instagram, Insung Information, Interteleco International for Modern Communication Services, ISS, Jawwal, Jazz, Johnson & Johnson, JT Telecom, Juniper Networks, Jysk, Kakao, Koch Strategic Platforms, Kore.ai, Leadsquared, Leanpay, Lebara Mobile, LendingPoint, Levi's, liveClinic, Lynk, Magyar Telekom, Manulife Singapore, Marham, Masivan S.A.S, Mastercard, medGo, MediaMarkt, Mepal, Meraki, MessengerPeople, Meta, Metaswitch, METRO, mGage, MHP, Michelin, Microsoft, Miro, Mob, Mobifone, MobiFone Vietnam, mobilesquared, MRM, MTD Products, MTN, Mukuru, myElefant, Nederlandse Loterij, Netokracija, New10, Nexi, Next Education, Nickel, NLB Banka, Norwegian Cruise Line, Norwegian Health Agency, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, O2, Office Depot, OLA, Onecom, Ooredoo, OpenCart, OpenMarket, OpenSooq, Oracle, Orange, Oxfam, Paidy, PalFish, Papa John's Pizza, ParkMobile, Paylogic, Peerless Network, PensionBee, Ping Identity, Plus, Postnord, Proximus, Radware, Raiffeisen Bank, Rakuten Viber, RAM Tracking, Randstad, Rapido, Red Hat, Red je Pakketje, RedEye, Remitly, Responsys, Revolut, Ribbon, Richemont International, Roadmap, Robi, RSPCA, Safaricom, Santander, SAP, Sberbank, SecureAppbox, SEEN, Selligent, Senati, Sequoia, Shift Conference, ShoeBeDo, Shopify, Siemens, Siris, Smart, SnappCar, Sngular, Somtel, Spotify, Standard Bank, STC, Strands, SWAN, Swisscom, Takeaway.com, Tangerine, TanTan, TATA 1mg, Telegram, Tele-Town Hall, Thales, The Financial Times, The Times Group, T-Mobile, TNW (The Next Web), TraceDock, Transcosmos Research & Development Inc, Trellance, Trinity Mirror Group, TTN, Turkcell, Twistellar, TWW, Uber, UKRSIBBANK, Unilever, US Foods, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Viber, Vibes, Viettel, Vinted, Virgin, Visa, Visionflex, Vodafone, VoicePing, Volpy, VTB Bank, VvAA Groep BV, Wavy, WebEngage, WeFarm, Welthungerhilfe, WeWork, WhatsApp, Wolters Kluwer, WordPress, Wurth, Xenioo, YOOX Net-a-porter, Yousign, Zain, Zipcar, Zomato, Zong 4G.
DATA & INTERACTIVE FORECAST
Juniper Research's forecast suite for the Mobile Authentication market provides unrivalled industry benchmark data and forecasts, including splits for:
- Total Number of Smartphones
- Total Number of Authentication-enabled Smartphones
- Total Number of Mobile Subscribers
- Total Authentication Traffic Use Cases
- Total Operator-billed Revenue Lost to Authentication Channel
- Total Mobile Authentication Revenue, split by:
- Device-based Biometric
- Flash Calling
- Mobile Identity
- Number Verify
- OTP Voice
- OTT Authentication
- SMS
Geographical splits: 60 countries
Number of tables: Over 60 tables
Number of datapoints: Over 27,350 datapoints
harvest: Our online data platform, harvest, contains the very latest market data and is updated throughout the year. This is a fully featured platform enabling clients to better understand key data trends and manipulate charts and tables; overlaying different forecasts within the one chart - using the comparison tool. Empower your business with our market intelligence centre, and receive alerts whenever your data is updated.
Interactive Excels (IFxl): Our IFxl tool enables clients to manipulate both forecast data and charts, within an Excel environment, to test their own assumptions using the interactive scenario tool and compare selected markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase a client's ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.
FORECAST SUMMARY
Juniper Research forecasts that the total SMS traffic used for MFA or OTP use cases will reach 1.5 trillion by 2028, an increase from 1.3 trillion in 2023. Despite this, Juniper Research expects the global SMS authentication traffic to only grow 4% in 2024; threatening key operator revenue streams.
- Rapidly rising SMS business prices and emerging fraudulent tactics will diminish the demand from enterprises for SMS-based authentication. As such, operators will only experience 4% growth in traffic in 2024, compared to average annual growth of 10% over the previous five years.
- The rise of AIT, where enterprises pay for SMS authentication traffic for users that do not exist, will be a key driver of rising SMS prices. This is leading enterprises to explore alternative authentication technologies, such as one-time passwords over OTT messaging apps and flash calling.
- Over 50% of SMS traffic will be attributable to authentication use cases in 2024. To combat slowing SMS traffic growth, operators must promote authentication APIs such as Number Verify and SilentAuth, to keep demand for authentication services within operator-controlled environments. If operators are unable to reduce prices and fraud on their messaging networks, they risk losing vital authentication traffic and revenue to other channels.
- With high prices and unreliable SMS termination, enterprises are beginning to lose faith in SMS authentication. Operator APIs offer an opportunity for operators to ensure that authentication remains on operator networks.