Oil and Gas Sector Strategies for Low Carbon Fuels Market Overview, Production Outlook, Trends and Analysis

Abstract

The oil and gas industry currently faces numerous challenges, but the pressure to decarbonize its products is arguably the largest. Low carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries. There are a number of strategies that oil and gas players are exploring to branch into the low carbon fuels market. Renewable diesel and SAFs can be produced through coprocessing or the conversion of existing refineries by repurposing hydrotreating equipment. Standalone renewable projects will contribute the majority of production capacity for renewable diesel and SAFs. Meanwhile, oil and gas players will need to engage with hydrogen suppliers or invest in their own hydrogen production facilities to produce synthetic fuels. The production of each of these low carbon fuels is expected to increase, but all come with their own set of challenges, namely that they are currently not cost competitive with conventional fuels. Overall, SAFs will experience the strongest growth, with a CAGR of 49.8% between 2018- 2030 and, as a result, represent a promising area for the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, renewable diesel production will increase by 13.1% across the same time frame. Production challenges will see synthetic fuels remains a nascent technology in the run up to 2030.

Amid increasing pressure to decarbonize and diversify its products, this report outlines oil and gas sector strategies within the low carbon fuels market. The report identifies renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), and synthetic fuel as key focus areas based on existing oil and gas infrastructure as well as workforce skills and expertise. The report assesses the production outlook for each of these low carbon fuels and indicates the biggest areas of opportunity for oil and gas players.

Key Highlights

• Larger production capacities of renewable fuels are typically being achieved by renewable standalone projects, where construction is not hampered by an existing refinery footprint. Although these projects require a much higher capital expenditure.
• Based on GlobalData's database of active and upcoming renewable refinery projects, renewable diesel production is expected to exceed 8,900 mmgy by 2030.
• Only 4 of the top 10 integrated oil and gas companies by market capitalization feature in our renewable diesel ranking by capacity.
• Taking together both active and pipeline production capacity, SAF production is expected to exceed 6,100 mmgy in 2030.
• Low synthetic fuel production is partly due to the early stages of this technology and the challenges of achieving economically viable production on a commercial scale.

Scope

• Renewable diesel production outlook
• Renewable diesel upcoming projects
• SAFs production outlook
• SAFS upcoming projects
• Synthetic fuels production outlook
• Low carbon fuel deal activity within oil and gas
• Company filing trends within low carbon fuels

Reasons to Buy

• Obtain the most up to date information on recent developments and policies related to oil and gas sector strategies in the low carbon fuels segment.
• Identify the opportunities of challenges associated with the switch form oil refining to renewable refineries for crude oil refiners.
• Gain insight into the production outlook for renewable diesel, SAFS, and synthetic fuels.
• Assess competitors based on their active and pipeline capacities for low carbon fuel production and gain an overview of largest upcoming renewable refinery projects.