Oil and Gas Sector Strategies for Low-Carbon Fuels

The oil and gas industry is facing pressures from both governments and investors to decarbonize and diversify its products. Low-carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries, while diversifying its assets and decreasing the risk of its infrastructure becoming obsolete.

The oil and gas industry currently faces numerous challenges, but the pressure to decarbonize and diversify its products is arguably the largest. This is due to climate concerns, as well as increasing carbon tax imposed by governments, which threatens oil and gas companies' profits. This pressure also comes from investors, who are concerned with the long-term profitability of the industry. In fact, the World Economic Forum forecasts oil demand to peak between 2030 and 2035.

Low-carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries, while diversifying its assets and decreasing the risk of its infrastructure becoming obsolete.

There are a number of strategies that oil and gas players are exploring to branch into the low carbon fuels market. One pathway includes producing renewable diesel and SAFs through coprocessing or the conversion of existing refineries by repurposing existing equipment. Another pathway includes long-term investments into renewable standalone refineries, which require greater upfront capital but can scale production to far higher capacities than co-processing and conversion refineries.

Renewable standalone projects are expected to contribute the bulk of the production capacity for renewable diesel and SAFs, accounting for 64% of the overall renewable refinery capacity in 2030. Meanwhile, oil and gas players will need to engage with hydrogen suppliers or invest in their own hydrogen production facilities to produce synthetic fuels.

The production of each of these low-carbon fuels is expected to increase, but all come with their own set of challenges, namely that they are currently not cost-competitive compared to conventional fuels. A surge in fossil fuel demand in recent years has also led oil and gas companies to gain more confidence surrounding the industry's longevity, leading to a recent slowdown in low-carbon fuel investments.

Overall, SAFs will experience the strongest growth, with production increasing at a CAGR of 44% between 2020 and 2035 and, as a result, represent a promising area of development for the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, renewable diesel production will increase at a smaller CAGR of 9% across the same time frame, as some of its capacity will be diverted to SAFs. RD may also face oversupply challenges in the next decade, due to a predicted decrease in its demand. Lastly, production challenges will see synthetic fuels as the renewable fuel picked the least by oil and gas companies in the run-up to 2030.

Key Highlights

• Capacities for all three types of renewable refineries (crude oil refinery conversion, coprocessing and renewable standalone) are forecast to keep increasing through to 2030.
• Crude refinery conversion and crude refinery co-processing capacities are both set to grow at a CAGR of 14% between 2024 and 2030.
• Renewable standalone capacity is growing at the highest rate, with a CAGR of 30% between 2024 and 2030.
• For all three types of refineries, between 2024 and 2030, a shift can be witnessed where capacity is increasingly being devoted to SAFs as opposed to RD.
• RD production and consumption are both set to grow at a CAGR of 12% and 12.5%, respectively, between 2020 and 2032, where they are set to reach a peak.
• Global SAF production and consumption are both set to grow at a CAGR of 44% between 2020 and 2035.
• Synthetic fuel production from low-carbon hydrogen is set to keep growing, with a positive CAGR of 58% between 2025 and 2030, with a spike in capacity in 2030 (over 10mtpa).

Scope

• Oil and gas sector strategies for low-carbon fuels;
• Legislative framework for biofuels, with specific focus on RD and SAF;
• Sector strategies for transitioning into renewable fuels, including refinery retrofitting;
• Crude oil refinery conversion and coprocessing vs renewable standalone
• Renewable diesel: market outlook and leaders
• SAFs: market outlook and leaders
• Synthetic fuels: market outlook and leaders

Reasons to Buy

• Identify decarbonizing market trends within the oil and gas sector, including the analysis of the strategies that the biggest industry players are implementing.
• Develop market insight of the major technologies and pathways used to decarbonize the industry, including refinery retrofitting as well as investment into standalone refineries, with focus on renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuels, and synthetic fuels.
• Identify the key policies driving development and which countries have the most established legislative framework for said technologies.
• Facilitate the understanding of what is predicted to happen in the renewable fuels market within the next decade.