Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market - A Global and Regional Analysis: Focus on Application, Engine Type, Fuel Type, Manufacturing Technology, Blending Capacity, and Country - Analysis and Forecast, 2025-2035

Introduction to Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market

The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market has emerged as a crucial and rapidly growing sector within the aviation industry, driven by the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impact of aviation on climate change. SAF, also known as biojet fuel, is derived from sustainable feedstocks such as agricultural waste, algae, and renewable energy sources. It offers a viable alternative to conventional jet fuel by significantly reducing carbon dioxide emissions and other pollutants. The SAF market is witnessing increasing global attention and investment as governments, airlines, and industry stakeholders strive to achieve their sustainability goals. With its potential to revolutionize aviation and contribute to a greener future, the sustainable aviation fuel market presents significant opportunities for innovation, collaboration, and positive environmental impact.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Introduction

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has a long history that dates back to the early 2000s when environmental and climate change concerns first gained popularity. The need for alternative fuels that may lower greenhouse gas emissions and dependency on fossil fuels was acknowledged by academics and industry professionals. The first focus was on biofuels made from plants such as sugarcane and soybeans. The first commercial flight powered by a mixture of biofuel and regular jet fuel took off in 2008. Since then, there has been a substantial advancement in the creation and acceptance of SAF, with improvements in the variety of feedstocks used, the refining procedures, and the certification criteria.

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is now seeing a remarkable increase in attention and usage on a worldwide scale. Cleaner substitutes for conventional jet fuels are urgently needed in light of rising worries about climate change and the negative environmental effects of the aviation sector. Hence, a workable answer has been provided by SAF, which is produced from sustainable feedstocks such as biomass, used cooking oil, or hydrogen. Progress in the industry is being driven by cutting-edge technology and partnerships, which have boosted companies' SAF manufacturing capacity, improved supply chain logistics, and reduced prices. To encourage the implementation of SAF and provide a more sustainable future for air transport, issues including scalability, feedstock supply, and regulatory frameworks must be resolved.

Industrial Impact

The sustainable aviation fuel and technological advancements in the field are expected to have a positive impact on the global market for sustainable aviation fuel. Several organizations and government agencies are working to introduce newer manufacturing techniques into the global sustainable aviation fuel market. When compared to different sustainable aviation fuel products, such as different fuel types, the demand for biofuel stands out as the fuel that is currently in high demand.

In recent years, sustainable aviation fuel has registered an exponential surge in demand from the commercial aviation industry, with high demands for business and general aviation. Additionally, due to the increasing environmental concerns, sustainable aviation fuel has grown in significance during the past few years. For instance, in May 2023, Neste signed an agreement with ITOCHU, which extended its collaboration in order to represent Neste MY Renewable Diesel as an authorized distributor in Japan. Based on this arrangement, Neste MY Renewable Diesel's market reach would be increased, for instance, to the region around Osaka in order to supply the fuel for the 2025 Osaka-Kansai Japan Expo building site.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Segmentation:

Segmentation 1: by Application

• Commercial Aviation
• Business and General Aviation
• Military Aviation
• Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)

Commercial Aviation Application to Continue its Dominance as the Leading Application Segment in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market

Based on application, the sustainable aviation fuel market is led by the commercial aviation segment. Increasing environmental concerns and volatile jet fuel prices are expected to drive the growth of the sustainable aviation fuel market.

Given that commercial aviation contributes significantly to the world's greenhouse gas emissions, it is the greatest consumer of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The environmental effect of aviation has evolved into a critical issue as air travel continues to expand quickly. By lowering the carbon impact of airplanes, SAF provides a possible alternative. Commercial airlines have adopted SAF as a way to meet their sustainability objectives because they understand the urgent need to switch to greener fuels. The aviation industry is a great sector for promoting the demand for and supply of sustainable aviation fuel because it has the size and infrastructure to facilitate widespread SAF adoption. Commercial aviation contributes significantly to reducing climate change and promoting a more environment-friendly future by setting the standard for SAF usage.

Segmentation 2: by Engine Type

• Piston Engine
• Turbine Engine

Segmentation 3: by Fuel Type

• Hydrogen Fuel
• Biofuel
• Power-to-Liquid Fuel
• Gas-to-Liquid Fuel

Segmentation 4: by Manufacturing Technology

• Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (FT-SPK)
• Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids-Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (HEFA-SPK)
• Alcohol-to-Jet Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (ATJ-SPK)
• Synthetic ISO-Paraffin from Fermented Hydroprocessed Sugar (HFS-SIP)
• Catalytic Hydrothermolysis Jet (CHJ)

Segmentation 5: by Blending Capacity

• Below 30%
• 30% to 50%
• Above 50%

Segmentation 6: by Region

• North America - U.S. and Canada
• Europe - U.K., Germany, France, and Rest-of-Europe
• Asia-Pacific - Japan, India, China, and Rest-of-Asia-Pacific
• Rest-of-the-World - Middle East and Africa and Latin America

Recent Developments in the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market

• In May 2023, Neste signed an agreement with ITOCHU, which extended their collaboration in order to represent Neste MY Renewable Diesel as an authorized distributor in Japan. Based on this arrangement, Neste MY Renewable Diesel's market reach would be increased, for instance, to the region around Osaka in order to supply the fuel for the 2025 Osaka-Kansai Japan Expo building site.
• In April 2023, Shell signed an agreement with Delta under which Delta would purchase 10 million gallons of SAF from Shell Aviation over a period of 2 years, with the Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) serving as its hub. With more than 200 million gallons of SAF committed, the international airline will be well on its approach to meeting its target of using 35% SAF by 2035 and more than halfway toward its objective of using 10% SAF annually by the end of 2030.
• In November 2022, Gevo signed an agreement with Iberia Airlines, under which they would receive 6 million gallons of SAF for the next five years for its commercial operations. The company expects to fuel its aircraft with SAF coming from Gevo, Inc. from 2028. The agreement is valued at $165 million for the tenure of 5 years.

Demand - Drivers and Limitations

Market Demand Drivers:

Volatile Jet Fuel Prices: The market for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) can grow as a result of the volatility of jet fuel costs. Jet fuel price fluctuations may have a significant influence on an airline's operational expenses and profitability, making the search for alternate and more reliable sources of fuel more and more appealing. Airlines can safeguard themselves against price volatility, lessen their vulnerability to unpredictably high fuel prices, and increase their long-term financial stability by investing in SAF.

Market Challenges:

Certification and Sustainability Criteria: The market for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is highly dependent on certification and sustainability standards. For SAF producers and users to prove their dedication to lowering greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impact, certification and ensuring compliance with strict sustainability criteria are essential. The complexity of certification criteria, the absence of widely accepted standards, and the demand for third-party verification make it difficult to navigate this environment.

How can this report add value to an organization?

Product/Innovation Strategy: The product segment helps the reader understand the different types of products available for deployment and their potential globally. Moreover, the study provides the reader with a detailed understanding of the sustainable aviation fuel market by application (commercial aviation, business and general aviation, military aviation and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), engine type (turbine engine and piston engine), product on the basis of fuel type (hydrogen fuel, biofuel, power-to-liquid fuel, and gas-to-liquid fuel), manufacturing technology (fischer-tropsch synthetic paraffinic kerosene (FT-SPK), hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids-synthetic paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK), alcohol-to-jet synthetic paraffinic kerosene (ATJ-SPK), synthetic ISO-paraffin from fermented hydroprocessed sugar (HFS-SIP), and catalytic hydrothermolysis jet (CHJ), and blending capacity (below 30%, 30% to 50%, and above 50%).

Growth/Marketing Strategy: The sustainable aviation fuel market has seen major development by key players operating in the market, such as business expansion, partnership, collaboration, and joint venture. The favored strategy for the companies has been merger and acquisition to strengthen their position in the sustainable aviation fuel market. For instance, in February 2023, Fulcrum BioEnergy stated that its U.K. subsidiary, Fulcrum BioEnergy, Ltd., has been awarded a grant from the U.K. Department for Transport Advanced Fuels Fund of over $20.2 million. The award, which is valid through 2025, will aid in the construction of Fulcrum NorthPoint, a plant that will convert residual waste into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at the Essar Stanlow site.

Competitive Strategy: Key players in the sustainable aviation fuel market analyzed and profiled in the study involve major sustainable aviation fuel offering companies providing sustainable aviation fuel and different manufacturing technology. Moreover, a detailed competitive benchmarking of the players operating in the sustainable aviation fuel market has been done to help the reader understand how players stack against each other, presenting a clear market landscape. Additionally, comprehensive competitive strategies such as partnerships, agreements, and collaborations will aid the reader in understanding the untapped revenue pockets in the market.

Methodology: The research methodology design adopted for this specific study includes a mix of data collected from primary and secondary data sources. Both primary resources (key players, market leaders, and in-house experts) and secondary research (a host of paid and unpaid databases), along with analytical tools, are employed to build the predictive and forecast models.

Data and validation have been taken into consideration from both primary sources as well as secondary sources.

Key Considerations and Assumptions in Market Engineering and Validation

• Detailed secondary research has been done to ensure maximum coverage of manufacturers/suppliers operational in a country.
• Exact revenue information, up to a certain extent, was extracted for each company from secondary sources and databases. Revenues specific to product/service/technology were then estimated for each market player based on fact-based proxy indicators as well as primary inputs.
• The currency conversion rate has been taken from the historical exchange rate of Oanda and/or other relevant websites.
• Any economic downturn in the future has not been taken into consideration for the market estimation and forecast.
• The base currency considered for the market analysis is US$. Currencies other than the US$ have been converted to the US$ for all statistical calculations, considering the average conversion rate for that particular year.
• The term "product" in this document may refer to "service" or "technology" as and where relevant.

Primary Research

The primary sources involve industry experts from the aviation industry and sustainable aviation fuel manufacturers and suppliers. Respondents such as CEOs, vice presidents, marketing directors, and technology and innovation directors have been interviewed to obtain and verify both qualitative and quantitative aspects of this research study.

Secondary Research

This study involves the usage of extensive secondary research, company websites, directories, and annual reports. It also makes use of databases, such as Spacenews, Bloomberg, Factiva, Businessweek, and others, to collect effective and useful information for a market-oriented, technical, commercial, and extensive study of the global market. In addition to the data sources, the study has been undertaken with the help of other data sources and websites, such as www.nasa.gov.

Secondary research was done to obtain critical information about the industry's value chain, the market's monetary chain, revenue models, the total pool of key players, and the current and potential use cases and applications.

Key Players in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market and Competition Synopsis

The companies that are profiled have been selected based on thorough secondary research, which includes analyzing company coverage, product portfolio, market penetration, and insights, which are gathered from primary experts.

Some prominent names established in sustainable aviation fuel market are:

• Shell
• Neste
• SkyNRG
• BP p.l.c.
• Alder Fuels
• Aemetis, Inc.
• Gevo
• Velocys plc
• TotalEnergies
• Fulcrum BioEnergy