SAFs as the way forward for the aviation industry

The aviation industry contributes to approximately 10% of all transport-related emissions. With net-zero targets being set by governments around the world, decarbonization strategies need to be adopted. SAFs have been identified as a key technology to decarbonize the aviation industry, with hydrotreatment and PtL (Power to Liquid) as the dominant pathways for SAF production. Both the public and private sectors have mobilized by setting blending mandates and targets for SAF utilization to help reach net-zero goals.

The aviation industry contributes to approximately 10% of all transport-related emissions. With net-zero targets being set by governments around the world, decarbonization strategies need to be adopted. SAFs have been identified as a key technology to decarbonize the aviation industry, with hydrotreatment and Power to Liquid as the dominant pathways for SAF production. Hydrotreatment is playing a major role at present, as the technology is readily available and currently the most affordable, however, it faces issues of feedstock availability. For this reason, Power to Liquid synthetic fuels will play a greater role in the long-term, when low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture infrastructure will have reached maturity. A number of countries have set blending mandates for SAF usage, and, more prevalently in countries where mandates have not been set in place yet, numerous airlines have also set voluntary blending mandates. Airlines are planning on reaching their targets by signing long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers. With SAF capacity projected to grow at a CAGR of almost 68% between 2020 and 2030, Asia, North America, and Europe have been identified as the key regions providing the majority of said supply. On the demand side, North America, Europe, and the UK are expected to become the dominant markets for SAF consumption.

Key Highlights

• Commercial aviation represents a particularly difficult sector to decarbonize, with long distance journeys and high energy density requirements posing a barrier to energy transition strategies such as electrification, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have been identified as a key technology for achieving emission reductions. More specifically, hydrotreatment and HEFA are the currently the dominant pathways to producing SAF, however, due to their limited feedstock availability, other pathways such as PtL (Power to Liquid) will become the prevalent ones in the long-term.
• Countries such as UK, Brazil, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, India, Indonesia and EU-27 have already enforced blending mandates.
• Asia, North America, and Europe will be the dominant regions for SAF supply through 2050.
• North America, Europe, and UK will be the top regions and countries for SAF consumption through 2050.
• Airlines' strategies currently consist of securing long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers so that they may have sufficient SAF to abide by countries' blending mandates and meet net-zero targets in the run up to 2050.

Scope

• Aviation's current emissions and emission targets.
• The role SAF will play in decarbonizing the aviation sector.
• Overview of different pathways to produce SAF with particular focus to hydrotreatment and synthetic fuels.
• Overview of countries' blending mandates or support for SAFs.
• SAF capacity outlook, including upcoming biggest SAF plants by 2030 capacity, and largest producers of SAF.
• Overview of geographical distribution of present and future SAF demand and supply.
• Overview of airlines' strategies to reduce emissions.
• Overview of signals such as company filings and recent deals as a measure to understand micromovements in the SAF market.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify market trends within the aviation industry with regards to decarbonization efforts to meet net-zero targets and abide by countries' blending mandates for SAF usage.
• Identify key technologies for the decarbonization of the aviation industry, with particular focus on hydrotreatment and PtL (Power to Liquid).
• Identify which countries have already issued blending mandates, and what other countries are doing to support the development of the technology.
• Identify which countries will become the largest suppliers and consumers of SAFs.
• Develop market insight into what corporations are doing to future-proof their business, including oil and gas companies devoting part of their capacity to SAF production, and airlines signing long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers.
• Stay up to date with the latest deals within the sector, from mergers and acquisitions to venture financing, and private equity deals.