Impact of Chip Expansion on US Chemical Supply-Chain

Description

The electronic materials advisory firm providing business and technology information on semiconductor supply chains -- is forecasting a jump in the US domestic share of the semiconductor material market to 13-15% by 2027, as support grows for incoming fab expansions. While this outlook is looking generally positive for the US semiconductor industry, uncertainties with timing expansions have made it difficult for suppliers to plan effectively and CHIPS Act funding does not seem to be helping. In many cases, suppliers are "expansion-ready," and are just awaiting demand signals from chip manufacturers. As a result, much of the incremental US wet chemical capacity is focused on an "import first, build later" strategy, meaning capacity is being used to warehouse, possibly purify, repackage, and distribute imported chemicals, rather than manufacture them domestically. This is the case in regard to IPA, as shown in the graph below. Although the potential growth is high, the timing is uncertain.

1.0. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - EXPANSIONS HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WAFER STARTS
1.2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - CHEMICAL DEMAND GROW ACCELERATES
1.3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - MATERIALS INCREASES ACROSS THE SPECTRUM
1.4. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED
1.5. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - IMPORT DEPENDENCIES
1.6. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - BY CHEMICAL (NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM 2022)
1.7. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - "IMPORT FIRST, BUILD LATER"

2.0. THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS

2.1. SHRINKING DOMESTIC MANUFACTURING
2.2. GLOBAL MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY
2.3. GLOBAL DYNAMICS IMPACT INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
2.4. MATERIAL MARKETS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT
2.5. IMPACT OF US CHIP EXPANSION ON WET CHEMICAL DEMAND
2.6. WET CHEMICAL DEMAND INCREASE LED BY LOGIC MANUFACTURING
2.7. ADVANCED DEVICES DRIVE MATERIALS INCREASES
2.8. CURRENT SUPPLIERS - SUPPLY CHAIN CHARACTERISTICS
- 2.8.1. CURRENT SUPPLIERS - MARKET RANKINGS
- 2.8.2. CURRENT SUPPLIERS - MARKET DYNAMICS

3.0. THE FORECAST CHANGES TO THE STATUS QUO

3.1. ANNOUNCED AND PLANNED FAB EXPANSIONS UPDATE
3.2. CHIPS AND SCIENCE ACT OF 2022
3.3. CHIPS ACT PROVISIONS
3.4. NEW FABS IN THE US
3.5. US FAB/PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY
3.6. US CHIP EXPANSION EFFECT ON CAPACITY
3.7. CHIP EXPANSION CHANGES IN WET CHEMICAL DEMAND
3.8. WET CHEMICAL DEMAND - A STRONG MESSAGE TO SUPPLIERS

4.0. SUPPLY, DEMAND & CAPACITY

4.1. DEFINITIONS OF THE TERMS USED THROUGHOUT THIS REPORT
4.2. SEMICONDUCTOR EXPANSION DRIVES MATERIALS DEMAND GROWTH
4.3. CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED
4.4. CHEMICAL DEMAND FORECAST, MANUFACTURING CAPABILITIES & GAP
4.5. PURITY OVERVIEW
4.6. DOMESTIC FAB EXPANSION PLANS ACCELERATE
4.7. DEMAND GROWTH BY WET CHEMICAL TYPE
4.8. CHEMICAL VOLUME DEMAND GROWS BY 75%
4.9. WET CHEMICAL SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECASTS
- 4.9.1. SULFURIC ACID (H2SO) OUTLOOK
  - 4.9.1.1. US IMPORTS OF UHP H2SO4
  - 4.9.1.2. H2SO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE
- 4.9.2. ISOPROPYL ALCOHOL (IPA) OUTLOOK
  - 4.9.2.1. US IMPORTS OF UHP IPA
  - 4.9.2.2. IPA US MARKET LANDSCAPE
- 4.9.3. HYDROGEN PEROXIDE (H2O2) OUTLOOK
  - 4.9.3.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP H2O2
  - 4.9.3.2. H2O2 US MARKET LANDSCAPE
- 4.9.4. HYDROCHLORIC ACID (HCL) OUTLOOK
  - 4.9.4.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP HCL
  - 4.9.4.2. HCL US MARKET LANDSCAPE
- 4.9.5. AMMONIUM HYDROXIDE (NH4OH) OUTLOOK
  - 4.9.5.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP NH4OH
  - 4.9.5.2. NH4OH US MARKET LANDSCAPE
- 4.9.6. HYDROFLUORIC ACID (HF) OUTLOOK
  - 4.9.6.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP HF
  - 4.9.6.2. HF US MARKET LANDSCAPE
- 4.9.7. PHOSPHORIC ACID (H3PO4) OUTLOOK
  - 4.9.7.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP H3PO4
  - 4.9.7.2. H3PO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE
- 4.9.8. NITRIC ACID (HNO3) OUTLOOK
  - 4.9.8.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP HNO3
  - 4.9.8.2. HNO3 US MARKET LANDSCAPE
4.10. KEY SUPPLIERS SUMMARY

5.0. ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS

5.1. ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS
5.2. ANTICIPATED ACTIONS
5.3. SUPPLIER US PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY
5.4. THE SAMSUNG/TSMC EFFECT
5.5. COMMENTS FROM THE PARTICIPANTS

6.0 DEPENDENCIES & CHALLENGES OF IMPORTS

6.1. US DEPENDENCE ON WET CHEMICAL IMPORTS
6.2. A CHANGING IMPORT PICTURE
6.3. "TO IMPORT OR NOT TO IMPORT, THAT IS THE QUESTION"

7.0 PACKAGING & PURITY

7.1. EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS
7.2. ULTRA HIGH PURITY DEMANDS - A LIABILITY OR OPPORTUNITY?
7.3. CHEMICAL PURITY TRENDS
- 7.3.1. EVER INCREASING PURITY REQUIREMENTS
7.4 SHIP TO CONTROL & EVOLVING REQUIREMENTS

8.0 TECHCET'S ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

8.1. TECHCET'S ASSESSMENT - GENERAL OBSERVATIONS
8.2. TECHCET'S ASSESSMENT - INTERNATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
8.3. TECHCET'S ASSESSMENT - SUPPLIER CONCERNS

APPENDIX A: MANUFACTURING UHP CHEMICALS

FIGURES

FIGURE 1: 2023 US CHIP FAB CAPACITY - 33.9 M WAFERS (200MM EQUIV.)
FIGURE 2: 2027 US CHIP FAB CAPACITY - 46.4 M WAFERS (200MM EQUIV.)
FIGURE 3: US ANNUAL WAFER CAPACITY FORECAST 2023-2027 (200MM EQUIV.)
FIGURE 4: SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD US EXPORTS
FIGURE 5: US SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY IS STRONG, DESPITE LIMITED MANUFACTURING PRESENCE. (REVENUES AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES BY HQ LOCATION)
FIGURE 6: 2022 GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS MARKET BY SEGMENT (US$71.7B)
FIGURE 7: US WET CHEMICAL DEMAND BY CHIP FABRICATOR 2023-2027 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)
FIGURE 8: US WAFER START CAPACITY FOR LOGIC DEVICES BY NODE, 2023-2027 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)
FIGURE 9: US WAFER CAPACITY FOR MEMORY DEVICES BY NODE, 2023-2027 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)
FIGURE 10: SEMICONDUCTOR DEMAND AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL
FIGURE 11: INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL CHIP EXPANSIONS 2022-2027 ($500 B USD)
FIGURE 12: US CHIP EXPANSIONS 2023-2027
FIGURE 13: CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW ANNUAL CAPACITY >35% TO 46.4M (200MM EQUIV.)
FIGURE 14: WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE 75% FROM LEADING CHIP FABS 2023-2027
FIGURE 15: US WAFER START GROWTH BY DEVICE TYPE AND NODE
FIGURE 16: US 2023 -- 2027 US WET CHEMICAL DEMAND FORECAST
FIGURE 17: US H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (MKG)
FIGURE 18: US H2SO4 UHP GRADE -- DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS
FIGURE 19: US H2SO4: 71% GROWTH, 11% CAGR
FIGURE 20: US SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (MKG)
FIGURE 21: US IPA UHP GRADE -- INCREASING DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS
FIGURE 22: US IPA VOLUME DEMAND 92% GROWTH 14% CAGR
FIGURE 23: US H2O2 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG)
FIGURE 24: US H2O2 UHP GRADE -- DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS
FIGURE 25: US H2O2 US VOLUME DEMAND 80% GROWTH 13% CAGR
FIGURE 26: US HCL SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG)
FIGURE 27: US HCL UHP GRADE -- DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS
FIGURE 28: US HCI US DEMAND 70% GROWTH 11% CAGR
FIGURE 29: US NH4OH SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG)
FIGURE 30 US NH4OH UHP GRADE DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS
FIGURE 31: US NH4OH US VOLUME DEMAND 77% GROWTH 12% CAGR
FIGURE 32: US HF SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG)
FIGURE 33: US HF UHP GRADEDEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS
FIGURE 34: US HF VOLUME DEMAND 59% GROWTH, 10% CAGR
FIGURE 35: US H3PO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG)
FIGURE 36: US H3PO4 UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS
FIGURE 37: US H3PO4 US VOLUME DEMAND79% GROWTH, 12% CAGR
FIGURE 38: US HNO3 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG)
FIGURE 39: US HNO3 UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS
FIGURE 40: US HNO3 US VOLUME DEMAND 33% GROWTH, 6% CAGR
FIGURE 41: RENDERING OF TSMC'S ARIZONA FACILITY
FIGURE 42: CHINA TO US OCEAN FREIGHT EXPORT PRICE TRENDS
FIGURE 43: SHIP TO CONTROL FOR PROCESS CHEMICALS EXAMPLE

TABLES

TABLE 1: CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2023-2027
TABLE 2: US WET CHEMICAL EXCESS/SHORTFALLS EXPECTED
TABLE 3: DEPENDENCY OF UHP PRODUCTS ON IMPORTS WITHOUT ADDITIONAL DOMESTIC CAPACITY
TABLE 4: US DOMESTIC TIER I TOP 3 SUPPLIERS BY VOLUME SUPPLIED
TABLE 5: US FAB RAMP FORECAST (200MM EQUIV.)
TABLE 6: WET CHEMICALS WITH THE HIGHEST DEMAND GROWTH IN THE US 2027/2023
TABLE 7: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED (SAME AS TABLE 2)
TABLE 8: UHP AND IC GRADE SPLIT USED FOR GRAPHS
TABLE 9: US SEMICONDUCTOR CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2027/2023
TABLE 10: SUMMARY OF KEY US SUPPLIERS
TABLE 11: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY, PAGE 1 OF 3
TABLE 11: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY, PAGE 2 OF 3
TABLE 11: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY, PAGE 3 OF 3
TABLE 12: COMMENTS FROM THE SELECTED PARTICIPANTS
TABLE 13: 2027 IMPORTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF UHP AND TOTAL DEMAND
TABLE 14: INCREASING DEPENDENCY OF UHP PRODUCTS ON IMPORTS
TABLE 15: EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS
TABLE 16: PURITY REQUIREMENTS
TABLE 17: COMMENTS FROM THE SELECTED PARTICIPANTS