PUBLISHER: SNE Research | PRODUCT CODE: 1374456
PUBLISHER: SNE Research | PRODUCT CODE: 1374456
The mass production of single-crystal cathodes, poised to significantly enhance electric vehicle battery performance, is imminent, heralding an anticipated escalation in competition between Chinese and Korean companies.
In commercial electric vehicle batteries, the cathode materials currently employed consist of polycrystalline structures comprising multiple metal compound crystals. However, cracks often develop between these particles during the rolling process to achieve uniform thickness, as well as during charging and discharging. With repeated cycles, these cracks expand, resulting in material deterioration, increased gas generation within the battery, and a decline in charging/discharging cycles, ultimately diminishing battery longevity.
Single crystals, unlike their polycrystalline counterparts, are immune to this issue as their particles remain intact. Moreover, as nickel content rises to boost capacity, structural stability decreases, heightening the risk of fire. Hence, the development of single crystal cathodes emerges as a solution to this challenge.
Single crystal cathodes offer cost savings and enhanced yields by eliminating residual materials, thereby lowering defect probability and obviating the need for a washing process. This step, crucial in cathode manufacturing for impurity removal, becomes unnecessary with single crystal technology.
The commercialization of single-crystal cathodes is poised to broaden the utilization of high-nickel cathodes. With reduced gas generation, battery lifespan extends while accommodating more active material, boosting energy density. Implementing this in electric vehicle battery packs could enable over 500 km of driving range on a single charge with fewer cells, facilitating longer-range vehicle models. This potential game-changer promises both cost reduction and performance enhancement simultaneously.
Yet, single crystal cathodes also pose drawbacks. Unlike polycrystalline counterparts, large single crystal materials exhibit high initial resistance, challenging the application of desired voltage. Consequently, output remains low, impeding battery performance enhancement.
However, single crystal cathodes entail extra processing steps and operate at higher voltages, potentially raising battery temperatures. Moreover, single crystal particles are susceptible to damage during the calendering process, a crucial part of electrode manufacturing.
Consequently, in the initial stages of mass production, single crystals are likely to be blended with polycrystals rather than being produced in their pure form.
Chinese companies are already producing single crystal cathodes for NCM523 and 622, and domestic companies such as LG Chem, Ecopro BEM, L&F, and POSCO FutureM have also completed development and are conducting quality tests with clients. The targets are single crystal NCA and NCM, and it can be seen that they are ready for mass production.
Industry experts anticipate that the performance and quality of single crystal cathodes will hinge on coating technology to ensure durability and the manufacturing process of single crystals. Essentially, the focus lies in effectively conducting surface treatment while simultaneously augmenting particle size.
Currently, the market for mass-produced single crystal cathodes is dominated by the top 5 Chinese companies, which account for about 75% of the total market.
According to announcements by Korean cathode material companies, SNE Research predicts that they will start supplying samples this year (2023) and produce more than 120,000 tons in 2025. Currently, in the case of Chinese ternary single crystal cathodes, the proportion of 5 series single crystals, such as NCM 523, is the highest at 60% to 70%. The proportion of 6 series single crystals, such as NCM622, is 18 to 25%. In the case of 8 series with a Ni content of 80% or higher, the production ratio has increased since 2021 and currently accounts for about 15%. This proportion is expected to continue to increase.
According to SNE Research, it is difficult to predict the market for Korea at this time because there is no data on production volume by Ni content. However, in the case of China, Hi-Ni is expected to be about $4.2 billion and Mid-Ni is expected to be $9.2 billion in 2025. In 2030, Hi-Ni is expected to be about $24 billion and Mid-Ni is expected to be $23.8 billion, so the market for Hi-Ni is expected to be larger.