<2023> Battery Lithium Metal Report (~2030)

Description

In Nov 2022, the price of lithium carbonate rose to 500,000 yuan (about KRW 91,245,000) per ton due to shortage in supply. With such unprecedented price of lithium carbonate, CATL even offered lithium carbonate rebate of 200,000yuan (about KRW 36.5 million) per ton to electric vehicle OEMs.

However, the price of lithium carbonate began to fall as news has been spreading of China's reduced electric vehicle subsidies and increased inventory in battery manufacturers, and plunged to 150,000 yuan (about 27.37 million won) per ton as of Apr 2023.

With the advent of the electric vehicle era, the proportion of secondary batteries in the total lithium usage has increased from 40% in 2014 to about 80% in 2023. As such, the electric vehicle market has been increasingly influenced by the impact of changes in the lithium market. However, the long lead time (the time from mine excavation to production), the nature of the mining market, made it difficult to satisfy the increased lithium demand due to the growth of the electric vehicle market. As a result, volatility of lithium price is increasing and has direct impact on corporate margins of EV makers and secondary battery manufacturers.

Currently, lithium mining is taking place in a small number of countries, including Chile and Australia. However, news of discovery of huge amount of lithium deposits has been newly announced in countries such as Bolivia, Iran, and India, and several countries including Europe and Africa have reported that they will mine lithium. SNE Research predicts that there will be total 24 lithium mining countries in 2030.

Reports of the discovery of lithium mines are raising hopes that the deposits will fully meet the demand from the electric vehicle market, but there are errors in this assumption. Only a few mines are commercially viable in the stage of exploration, and there is long lead time of 5-10 years till actual mining. Apart from the increase in global reserves, the actual supply of the lithium mining companies and the mines should be closely monitored. The balance between supply forecast and demand in the secondary battery market will be an important means for future upstream market strategies and predicting price fluctuations.

This report describes the overall market status, policies and strategies by different countries, and prediction of supply, demand, and price for lithium metal. Especially, forecast of the lithium demand in this report provides specific figures for each battery manufacturer and each cathode material product. And also, the report forecasts lithium supply by considering the production volume of all mining projects. From these two figures, we create a model for demand-supply balance scenario and predict price till 2030.

We hope that the report will help readers understand the overall lithium metal industry and prepare for future fluctuations of lithium raw material by looking at the outlook provided by the insightful report of SNE Research.

The strong points of this report are;

Lithium production forecast and lithium policies of existing and new lithium mining countries till 2030

Outlook for how major battery manufacturers secure lithium and consumption of lithium till 2030

Outlook for chemical composition of cathode materials and lithium demand by product till 2030

^*LFP, Mid-Ni 523/622, High Ni NCM/NCMA Ni>80%, LCO, LCA, NMx, LMO, NCM 111/424.

A forecasting scenario of adjusted amount of lithium production based on supply and demand and the balance between supply and demand of lithium metal

Forecast of the lithium price based on processing cost and supply and demand in major mining countries till 2030

Product Code: 205

1. Overview of secondary batteries

1.1. What are secondary batteries?
1.2. Raw materials for secondary battery components
1.3. Cathode materials
- 1.3.1. Components
- 1.3.2. Content of major materials
- 1.3.3. Metal content (Kg/KWh)
- 1.3.4. Note) Mineral content per one electric vehicle

2. Overview of lithium metal

2.1. Overview of lithium
2.2. Applications and characteristics by product
- Note) Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
2.3. Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (Li2CO3,LCE)
2.4. Forms of natural deposit
2.5. Production ratio by ore type
2.6. Lithium usage ratio by industry

3. Lithium mining technology

3.1. Mining process - brine type
3.2. Mining process - hard-rock type
3.3. Technology development for lithium recovery
3.4. Process comparison of lithium extraction
- Note) Trends of recycling regulations in major countries
- Note) Risks of lithium ESG

4. Lithium policy by country

4.1. Lithium policy in China
4.2. Lithium policy in Central South America
- 4.2.1. Chile
- 4.2.2. Brazil
- 4.2.3. Argentina
- 4.2.4. Bolivia
- 4.2.5. Mexico
- Note) Latest lithium policy in Central South America
4.3. Lithium policy in Australia
4.4. Lithium policy in Europe
- 4.4.1. Portugal
- 4.4.2. UK
4.5. Lithium policy in Africa
- 4.5.1. Zimbabwe

5. Policy of major countries for key minerals

5.1. Lithium policy of major countries
5.2. Lithium policy of EU
5.3. Lithium policy of US
- Note) Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) & Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
5.4. Lithium policy of Japan
5.5. Lithium policy of Korea

6. Market status of major lithium producing countries

6.1. Lithium market in China
- 6.1.1. Production capacity of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
- 6.1.2. Capacity of production facilities of lithium carbonate by region (2022)
- 6.1.3. Capacity of production facilities of lithium hydroxide by region (2022)
- 6.1.4. Import/export of lithium carbonate/ lithium hydroxide in 2022
6.2. Lithium market in Chile
- 6.2.1. Lithium project by region
- 6.2.2. Export of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
6.3. Lithium market in Australia
- 6.3.1. Export of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
- 6.3.2. Major regions of lithium deposits and projects
- 6.3.3. 3 major mining companies for lithium
6.4. Lithium market in Argentina
- 6.4.1. Export of lithium and major import countries
- 6.4.2. Major areas of lithium deposits and projects
6.5. Lithium market in Brazil
- 6.5.1. Major mines and export route
- 6.5.2. 3 major mining companies for lithium
6.6. Lithium market in Zimbabwe
- 6.6.1. Major lithium projects

7. Status for lithium material and outlook for supply/demand (2021-2030)

7.1. Outlook for secondary battery demand
7.2. Outlook for chemical composition of cathode materials
7.3. Outlook for lithium demand by cathode material product
7.4. Outlook for lithium demand by industry
7.5. Outlook for lithium usage by major battery makers
- 7.5.1. Korea
- 7.5.2. China
- 7.5.3. Japan
- 7.5.4. US
- 7.5.5. EU
7.6. Lithium reserves (2023)
7.7. Global lithium supply
7.8. New lithium mining countries in 2022 and 2030
7.9. Outlook for global lithium supply
7.10. Balance of supply/demand of lithium material
7.11. Future lithium supply scenario till 2030 based on balance of supply and demand
7.12. Outlook for mining by region
- 7.12.1. Australia
- 7.12.2. China
- 7.12.3. South America
- 7.12.4. North America
- 7.12.5. Europe
- 7.12.6. Africa
- Note) Demand forecasting methodology
- Note) Mineral development lead time
- Note) Development status of lithium mine plants

8. How manufacturers secure lithium supply

8.1. Global EV OEMs
- 8.1.1. GM
- 8.1.2. Ford
- 8.1.3. Stellantis
- 8.1.4. Tesla
- 8.1.5. Prime Planet Energy & Solutions, PPES
- 8.1.6. Volkswagen
8.2. Battery manufacturers
- 8.2.3. Samsung SDI
- 8.2.4. CATL
- 8.2.5. BYD
- 8.2.6. Northvolt

9. Analysis of lithium price

9.1. Structure of lithium price in supply agreement
9.2. Long-term lithium price in supply agreement
9.3. Comparison of processing cost of brine type and hard-rock type
- Note) Cost comparison of major mines in Australia
- Note) Cost comparison of major salt lakes in China
- Note) Cost analysis of lithium extraction from spodumene and lepidolite in China
9.4. Price trends of major metal materials for secondary batteries
9.5. Price trends of lithium carbonate (2013-2023)
9.6. Outlook for lithium price as per supply/demand till 2030

10. Lithium mines by country

10.1. Australia
10.2. Chile
10.3. China
10.4. Bolivia
10.5. Argentina
10.6. Czech
10.7. India

11. Analysis of raw material manufacturers

11.1. Albemarle
11.2. SQM
11.3. Pilbara Minerals
11.4. Tianqi Lithium
11.5. Ganfeng Lithium