Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2024-2025

Description

Simba Information's Publishing for the PreK-12 Market, 2024-2025 report provides critical insights into the growing market for instructional materials in the K-12 education sector, with a focus on the transition to digital learning and the rise of personalized education models such as homeschooling, virtual schools, and charter schools. Key areas of growth include career and technical education (CTE), early literacy programs, and teacher workforce development, as states prioritize solutions for post-pandemic learning losses. As ESSER funding phases out, the education market faces potential economic uncertainties, affecting both public and private educational institutions.

Simba's Publishing for the PreK-12 Market, 2024-2025 analyzes these current trends in K-12 education and provides details on the growth of the instructional materials market in 2023 which totals $10.6 billion. The report highlights key players such as Pearson, McGraw-Hill, and Discovery Education, noting a decline in mergers and acquisitions as companies adapt to changing educational demands. This comprehensive analysis offers forecasts for 2025 and beyond, making it a valuable resource for understanding educational publishing, digital learning trends, and policy shifts impacting K-12 instructional materials.

Product Code: CURP19163397

Table of Content

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND METHODOLOGY

KEY FINDINGS

Enrollment and Demographics:

Budget and Policy

Size of Market for PreK-12 Instructional Materials

Competitive Analysis of Key Players

METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 1: ENROLLMENT AND DEMOGRAPHICS

ENROLLMENT TRENDS
PreK-12 Enrollment Stabilizes
Figure 1.1. Total Public School Enrollments, 2019-2023
Figure 1.2. Public School Enrollment by Grade Level, Fall 2018-Fall 2022
Figure 1.3. Public School Enrollment Percent Change by State, Fall 2019-Fall 2022
Long-Term Trends
The Funding Cliff and Enrollments
Graduation Rates
Figure 1.4. High School Graduation Rates by State
Dual Enrollment
Enrollment Projections 2022-2028
Figure 1.5. Actual and Projected Enrollment Number for Public Elementary and Secondary Schools by
Region, Fall 2010, Fall 2016, and Fall 2028
Figure 1.6. Projected Percent Change in Enrollment of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools by
State
THE PUBLIC SCHOOL LANDSCAPE
Table 1.1. Enrollment in Public K-12 Schools by Level, Fall 2019-Fall 2024 (millions)
Trends Vary by State
Table 1.2. Change in Public School Enrollments by State, Fall 2019-Fall 2024 (thousands)
Table 1.3. PreK-12 Enrollment by Region, Fall 2019-Fall 2023
Preliminary 2023-2024 State Estimates
Variations by Districts
Table 1.4. PreK-12 Enrollment in Key Districts by Academic Year, 2021-2024
Impacts Vary by Race and Ethnicity
Table 1.5. Enrollment in Public Schools by Level and Race/Ethnicity, 2022-2023 (thousands)
September 2024 (C) Simba Information
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GENERAL POPULATION TRENDS
Birth Rates
Figure 1.7. Age Specific Birth Rates, United States 2020-2022
Table 1.6. Change in Number of Births by Race/Ethnicity, 2020-2022
Youth Populations
Table 1.7. Resident US Population Under 18 Years, 2020-2022
Population Trends by States
Table 1.8. Total Cumulative Population Change Estimates by Region and State, April 2020-July 1, 2023
Table 1.9. Change in Population by State, 2020-2022
NUMBER OF PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Table 1.10. Number of Public K-12 Schools by Type and Charter, Magnet, and Virtual Status, 2018-19
through 2019-20
ALTERNATIVES TO PUBLIC SCHOOLS
School Choice
Private Schools
Catholic Schools
Table 1.11. Catholic School Enrollment, 2019-2024
Charter Schools
Table 1.12. Number of Charter Students and Schools, 2018-2019 through 2021-2022
Figure 1.8. States with the Largest Charter School Enrollment as a Share of Total School Enrollments,
2020-2021
Home Schooling
Figure 1.9. States with the Highest Number of Homeschoolers
Virtual Schooling and Microschooling
Figure 1.10. Enrollment Trends in Full-Time Virtual Schools
STUDENT GROUPS AND PROGRAMS
Poverty and Homelessness
Table 1.13. Number of Enrolled Homeless Students by Race, 2021-2022
Continued Rise of English Learner Population
Students on the Move
Table 1.14. Number of English Learners and Recent Immigration Students, 2014-2021
Figure 1.11. Immigrant Students and ELL Students in US Schools, 2020-2021
Figure 1.11. States with the Highest Number and Share of Immigrant Children Aged 5-17, 2021
Figure 1.12. Count of Immigrant Children, 2010-2021
Figure 1.13. Immigrant Children Living in Low-Income Households, 2021
Table 1.15. Top 10 Home Languages of Recent Immigrant Children
International Students
Special Education Services
Figure 1.14. Percent of Students in Special Education by State
September 2024 (C) Simba Information iii

CHAPTER 2: BUDGET & POLICY

FEDERAL FUNDING FOR PREK-12 EDUCATION
FY 2024 Congressional Appropriations
Table 2.1. Department of Education Fiscal Year 2023-2025 President's Budget Selected K-12 Programs
(thousand $)
Appropriations by State
Table 2.2. Department of Education Grants to Local Educational Agencies, 2023-2025 (thousand $)
Federal Department Contributions to Education
Table 2.3. Federal On Budget Funds for K-12 Education by Agency, 2023-2025 (billion $)
ESSER Funding
Total K-12 Spending
Table 2.4. Summary of Public Elementary/Secondary School System Revenues, FY2022 (thousand $)
Table 2.5. Summary of Public Elementary/Secondary School System Expenditures, FY2022 (thousand
$)
Table 2.6. Summary of Public Elementary/Secondary School System Revenues and Expenditures by
State, FY2022 (thousand $)
Looking Ahead
STATE POLICIES AND CHANGES IMPACTING EDUCATION
Federal Relief and Its Impact
Distribution and Utilization of ESSER Funds
Impact on Student Learning and Academic Recovery
Allocation and Spending Variations
Challenges and Criticisms
State Funding Trends
Fiscal Survey of States
General Trends
Regional Expenditures
State-Specific Initiatives and Changes
CURRENT CURRICULUM ISSUES
Politics in the Classroom: Book Bans, Gag Orders, and the Influence of Parental Choice on
Curriculum and Content
Figure 2.1. Book Bans Across the US
Figure 2.2. Topics Banned Most Often in School Books
Tracking Legislation and Bans
Figure 2.3. Books Challenged 2023
Figure 2.4. Active Content Restriction Bills by State, February 2023-2024
Rising Topics and Trends
Role of Educational Publishers
Social-Emotional Learning
High Quality Instructional Materials
The Role of States: Policies and Guidance
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POLICY INFLUENCING CURRICULUM
Computer Science
Key Developments and Initiatives
State-Specific Highlights
Financial Literacy
Federal Legislation
State-Level Initiatives
Key Initiatives and Programs
STEM/STEAM
Key Trends and Initiatives
Federal Initiatives and Support
The Impact of Generative AI
Background on AI in the Classroom
US Federal Restrictions on Generative AI
Other Types of Federal AI Legislation
State Legislation
Table 2.7. Education-Related AI Bills as of June 2024
AI Education Policy Advocacy from Non-Governmental Bodies
Actions for Educational Publishers and EdTech Companies
Career and Technical Education (CTE)
Key Developments and Initiatives
The Science of Reading
State Policies and Legislation
Dual Language Programs
State-Level Initiatives and Policies
PreK and Early Learning
Key Developments and Initiatives
Media Literacy
Figure 2.5. States Mandating Media Literacy Instruction in Schools
Federal Legislation
Related Initiatives
State Updates on Current Policy Trends
Workforce Development and Career and Technical Education (CTE)
K-12 Funding
Teacher Workforce
Early Care and Education
Academic Achievement and Literacy
Physical and Mental Health
Additional Considerations
SOCIAL ISSUES
Gun Violence
Prevalence of Gun Violence in Schools
Impact on Students and Educational Environments
September 2024 (C) Simba Information v
State and Federal Responses
Impact of the Israel-Hamas War on PreK-12 Education in the US
Navigating Sensitive Discussions
Impact on Student Safety and Well-Being
Teacher Responses and Challenges
Policy and Community Responses
Mental Health
Legislative and Policy Responses
School-Based Mental Health Initiatives
Title IX
Key Changes in the Title IX Regulations
Implementation and Compliance
Homelessness
Key Initiatives and Programs
Free School Meals for All
State Initiatives and Policies
Challenges and Future Directions
Connectivity and Data Privacy
Federal and State Initiatives
Drug Use
School Responses and Interventions
Staffing and Teacher Pay
Table 2.8. Current Spending on Teacher Salaries of Public Elementary/Secondary School Systems by
State, FY 2022 (thousand $)

CHAPTER 3: PREK-12 INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS

TOTAL SALES OF INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS
Sales by Segment
Table 3.1. Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools by Segment, 2021-2023 ($ millions)
Table 3.2. Market Share, Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools by Segment, 2021-
2023
Move to Digital Achieves Equilibrium
Table 3.3 Share of Instructional Materials, Print vs. Digital, 2020-2023
LOOKING AHEAD
Looking beyond 2024
Potential Negative Forces To Watch
Table 3.4. Forecasted Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools by Segment, 2023-2027 ($
millions)
Category Trends Continue
Table 3.5. Market Share, Forecasted Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools by Segment,
2023-2027
September 2024 (C) Simba Information
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Digital Materials Steady at Just Under Two-Thirds of Market
Table 3.6. Forecasted Share of Instructional Materials, Print vs. Digital, 2023-2027

CHAPTER 4: PREK-12 EDUCATIONAL PUBLISHERS COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

OPERATIONAL TRENDS IN 2023-2024
Challenges Facing Educators and Vendors
Technology at the Forefront
Budget Questions Ahead
Learning Loss Is Proving Difficult to Reverse
All Eyes on Career and Technical Education
Beyond the Classroom
Labor Issues and Teacher Burnout
Politics and Culture
How Companies Have Responded to the Trends
Boxlight
Cambium Learning
Cengage
Discovery Education
Goodheart-Willcox
HMH
Kahoot!
McGraw Hill
Pearson
PowerSchool
Renaissance Learning
Savvas Learning
Scholastic
Stride
PREK-12 COMPANIES' FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN 2023 AND EARLY 2024
Most Companies Show Revenue Growth in 2023
Table 4.1. Simba Information's PreK-12 Performance Index, Latest Full Fiscal Year
Individual Results Vary
Results Highlight Key Trends
Looking Ahead to 2024
Table 4.2. PreK-12 Companies' Revenue Outlook, Latest Partial Fiscal Year
Digital Transition Continues
Table 4.3. Digital Products and Services as Share of Selected PreK Companies' Revenue
STOCK PRICE TRENDS IN 2023-2024
Table 4.4. Education Company Stock Index, December 30, 2022-December 29, 2023
PreK-12 Segment Outperforms Key Indexes
The Year 2024 So Far
Table 4.5. Public Education Company Stock Index, January 2, 2024-June 28, 2024
Trend Toward Private Ownership Continues, but at a Slower Pace
September 2024 (C) Simba Information vii
SPACs and IPOs Disappear
ACT Goes From Non-Profit to Private Equity Ownership
M&A ACTIVITY IN 2023 AND 2024 YEAR TO DATE
M&A Activity in PreK-12 Education Declines in 2023
Table 4.6. M&A Activity Involving Suppliers of PreK-12 Educational Solutions, Calendar Year 2023
Industry Trends Drive Acquisition Activity
Researchers Confirm Slowing of M&A Deals
M&A Activity In 2024 Lags Behind 2023 - So Far
Table 4.7. M&A Activity Involving Suppliers of PreK-12 Educational Solutions, First Half of Calendar
Year 2024
PRIVATE INVESTMENT FOCUSES ON EARLY-STAGE OPPORTUNITIES
Table 4.8. Selected Private Equity Investments in PreK-12 Education, Calendar Year 2023
Industry-wide, EdTech Investment Quiets to Pre-Pandemic Levels
New Funds Enter the Market
First Half of 2024 Keeps Pace with 2023
Table 4.9. Selected Private Equity Investments in PreK-12 Education, First Half of Calendar Year 2024
Private Equity Portfolios Maintain Education Holdings
Table 4.10. Selected Private Equity Investors in PreK-12 Education, 2024