PUBLISHER: ResearchInChina | PRODUCT CODE: 1623328
PUBLISHER: ResearchInChina | PRODUCT CODE: 1623328
Research on REEV and PHEV: Head in the direction of high thermal efficiency and large batteries, and there is huge potential for REEVs to go overseas
In 2024, hybrid vehicles grew faster than battery electric vehicles (BEV) globally, and the sales of PHEVs & REEVs surpassed hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) for the first time.
In 2023, 9 million hybrid vehicles (PHEVs+REEVs+HEVs) were sold worldwide, accounting for 10.1% of the total vehicle sales. It is expected that over 12 million hybrid vehicles will be sold in 2024, making up of more than 13.5% of the total sales.
In 2023, 4 million PHEVs & REEVs were sold worldwide, a year-on-year spike of 49.8%. It is estimated that the sales will reach 6 million units in 2024. From 2020 to 2024, the global sales of PHEVs & REEVs sustained a high annual growth rate, up to 65%, thanks to the boom in the Chinese market.
In 2023, 5 million HEVs were sold worldwide, jumping by 34.4% year on year. The sales are expected to hit 5.2 million units in 2024. From 2021 to 2024, the global HEV market maintained an average annual growth rate of over 30%.
From January to September 2024, the global sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles including extended range vehicles (PHEVs & REEVs) exceeded general hybrid vehicles (HEVs) for the first time. Compared with HEVs, PHEVs & REEVs save more energy and are greener, and their prices have been much lower than before. It is expected that PHEVs & REEVs will become mainstream among hybrid vehicles to be sold in 2025.
Hybrid Vehicles
As per the sales of global hybrid vehicles (PHEVs & REEVs & HEVs) by region, China has become the main hybrid vehicle market since 2022 mainly thanks to the surging sales of PHEVs & REEVs.
Hybrid vehicles are developing towards high thermal efficiency, large batteries, and long range.
1.The thermal efficiency of engines for PHEVs & REEVs has reached 46% in China.
Most traditional fuel vehicles use the Otto cycle, that is, a cycle in which the compression ratio is equal to the expansion ratio. The most obvious way to further improve the thermal efficiency is to make the compression ratio lower than the expansion ratio, that is, the working stroke is higher than the compression stroke. Hybrid-specific engines that leverage the Miller/Atkinson cycle which can achieve higher thermal efficiency with much less low-end torque thus come into being. Electronic structures replace conventional mechanical accessories: for other power output sources are added to a plug-in hybrid system, the plug-in hybrid engine is relieved of a lot of burden. The control logic of most hybrid systems will allow engines to run directly in a relatively efficient range, avoiding such operating conditions as idling and low speed.
OEMs like BYD, Geely, Dongfeng, GAC, Great Wall Motor and Chery are vigorously investing in research and development. It is expected that a large number of hybrid engines with 45% thermal efficiency will be ready for industrial application from 2025. In 2024, BYD DM5.0 used a more efficient 1.5L/1.5T hybrid engine, with a maximum thermal efficiency of 46.05%/45.3%.
2.The power battery capacity of China's hot-selling PHEVs & REEVs has exceeded 43kWh.
From 2023 to 2024, the battery capacity of China's PHEVs & REEVs increased a lot, from about 15kWh to 30kWh. In the future, large batteries will become an inevitable trend in the development of PHEVs & REEVs. The battery capacity of REEVs is higher than that of PHEVs, but they are all involved with power batteries.
The battery capacity of the long-range editions of REEVs like BAIC ROX 01, BYD U8, AITO M9, Voyah FREE, Li L7/L8/L9, Leapmotor C01/C11, Neta S, and M-Hero 917 has exceeded 43kWh. The EV mode range of REEVs is generally longer than PHEVs;
The battery capacity of the long-range editions of PHEVs like BYD Denza N8/N9, JAC Refine RF8, Voyah Dreamer/Passion, Chery Jetour Shanhai T2, Great Wall WEY Gaoshan/Blue Mountain has hit more than 43kWh;
Compared with small batteries, large batteries offer greater benefits in application in vehicles:
A large battery is healthier than a small battery in service life: Battery lifespan mainly refers to cycle life, namely the number of charge and discharge cycles the battery can complete before its capacity drops (0%~100%~0%). Because of its low capacity, a small battery will definitely charge and discharge more frequently, while a large battery can dilute the charge and discharge frequency to a certain extent, and its cycle life will be relatively longer.
Higher battery performance: Compared with small batteries, under the same power requirements, the discharge rate of large batteries is lower, which can avoid damage to the materials and structural stability of the batteries during high current discharge.
It is not the better for hybrid vehicle batteries to have larger capacity. Because the weight and cost are also rising, so OEMs have been researching what capacity batteries should be used and what size of engine and motor they should match.
3.The comprehensive range of Chinese PHEVs & REEVs is planned to be 2,000km.
Domestic hybrid models, including BYD, Geely, Chery, Dongfeng, Roewe and many other plug-in hybrids with large fuel tanks, have a range of 2,000 kilometers. BYD DM 5.0 has achieved a comprehensive cruising range of 2,100km+, but it is only priced at RMB100,000, with lower price but longer range. The 2,000-kilometer range has become a new arena for OEMs to complete fiercely.
The overseas REEV market is in its infancy, leaving huge scope for Chinese OEMs to go overseas.
The extended-range type is a series type, and the technology route is much simpler the hybrid type. It is quick to get started, and does not require too much technical accumulation, with a relatively low threshold. In 2024, there were 36 REEV models on sale in China, more than doubling in 2023 with 17 models. In 2025, seven REEV models will be launched on market, including Deepal's 6-seat REEV, IM's first REEV, Changan Nevo C798, Xpeng's first REEV, STERRA's second SUV/MPV REEV, Voyah's 6-seat SUV REEV, and Leapmotor A12.
Chinese REEV OEMs' hybrid system - architecture - model
There are currently a total of 25 passenger car REEV models on sale. Brands such as Li Auto, AITO and Leapmotor prevail in the number of models and sales volume. Li Auto sells each REEV at a price of higher than RMB300,000; Changan performs well in REEV models, and its brand Deepal features cost-effective models in a price range of RMB110,000-190,000.
From the perspective of parameters, passenger car REEVs are mainly medium-sized and medium-to-large sized passenger cars, with battery capacity of around 40kWh and EV mode range longer than 200km.
Foreign OEMs are competing to launch their own extended-range vehicles to seize the hybrid market.
Compared with PHEVs, REEVs have a simple structure and high plasticity, and are more popular in the high-end market. In the international market, foreign OEMs have planned to launch their own extended-range vehicles. Foreign brands have planned REEVs and intended to develop and improve extended-range systems and launch them on market.
For example, Hyundai, Mazda, Stellantis, Nissan, BMW, Volkswagen Scout, etc. have all planned or launched extended-range vehicles. It is reported that over 80% of consumers chose the extended-range edition of Volkswagen Scout which was just launched in North America in October 2024. From 2025 to 2030, REEVs will not only gain popularity in the domestic market, but will be very hot in foreign markets.