Ultimate ITS - Autonomous Car in 5G Era: Markets, Standardization, Technologies

List of Tables

The goal of this report is to:

Analyze current trends in the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) development
Address the progress in the ITS standardization
Analyze technological and marketing ITS specifics
Address the connected car trend
Analyze the connected car technologies and marketing specifics; identify major industry players and their portfolios
Present the current status of the driverless car development
Analyze marketing and technological driverless car specifics
Analyze the lidar technologies and market as well as the industry for automotive applications
Show how communications industry is preparing for the 5G era, emphasizing the role of 5G mobile communications in supporting the driverless car development. The driverless car is one of important 5G use cases.

Though never managing to successfully predict what each forthcoming generation of mobile technology should deliver to satisfy future users, the industry has nonetheless reached some consensus on the use cases for 5G communications. Machine to machine communications is one. 5G should enable the IoT, the future where all online-enabled objects will quietly pass on data to each other or to a central computer.

Facilitating the use of mobile networks by connected and autonomous cars, remotely controlled industrial robots, telehealth systems, and smart city infrastructure are also all expected to figure large in 5G thinking. There is a common notion the industry is hoping that 5G will solve problems we don't have today, but those that could hold us back years in the future - and one of the best examples to such a statement is a driverless car.

This particular report addresses the Intelligent Transportation Systems progress in reaching its ultimate goal - to make a car "intelligent" enough to safely drive without a human participation. It also updates the status of a driverless car development in connection with transition to the 5G era: the industry identified driverless cars as most viable form of ITS, dominating the roadways by 2040 and sparking dramatic changes in vehicular travel. The report discusses the specifics of the 5G era as they are seen by the industry at the present time with emphasis on what 5G technologies can bring to a driverless car.
Such a car was considered by many as a scientists' dream only 10-15 years ago; now it is a reality and all predictions are that driverless cars will hit the roads in 6-8 years. Fully developed driverless car needs support of communications systems evolving in the transition to 5G; and these two developments are interrelated - a driverless car becomes a 5G use case.

The report provides overview of the current status of the driverless car development, pictures the future steps, which the industry is planning, analyzes roadblocks, and emphasizes the importance of standardization - several organizations are working in this area. The analysis concentrates on technological and marketing aspects of driverless cars and also on the status of the industry.

The survey of driverless cars projects currently underway is conducted; as well as the survey of related patents (2018-2024). Initial marketing statistics are developed.

The detailed analysis of two important parts of a driverless car - lidar (one of the critical components of ADAS) and the communications gear - "connected car" - is performed. The survey of recent auto lidar patents is also performed.

A driverless car, for simplicity, may be described as a combination of a connected car and ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems); and other parts. The ADAS important part is driverless car "eyes" - an instrument that can "see" surroundings and provide the information to the car for the analysis and taking relevant actions. One of most promising technologies that makes cars "to see" is lidar, which is composed of laser and other parts. The report provides the detailed analysis of lidar technical and marketing characteristics and the survey of the industry.

The detailed analysis of connected cars specifics, standardization, technical characteristics and economics are presented in this report. The companies - contributors to the connected car market development - are identified and their portfolios are analyzed.

The report also compares two main directions in vehicle communications:

C-V2X - Cellular - based
802.11p/DSRC/WAVE- based

By 2024, based on the analysis of the FCC recent decisions and opinions in the industry, C-V2X (Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything) is emerging as the dominant technology over WAVE (Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments), which is based on DSRC (Dedicated Short-Range Communications). The shift towards C-V2X has been driven by several factors:

1. Regulatory Support: The FCC has been actively supporting C-V2X, including approving waivers for its use in the 5.9 GHz band.
2. Technological Advancements: C-V2X leverages 4G and 5G networks, offering greater range and reliability compared to DSRC.
3. Global Adoption: Countries like China are leading the way, with significant investments and a national strategy for C-V2X. By 2025, it's expected that 50% of new cars in China will have C-V2X pre-installed.

This trend indicates that C-V2X is likely to become the standard for vehicle communication, enhancing safety and efficiency on the roads.

The report also emphasizes the importance of 5G mobile networking as a basis for the driverless car ITS revolution. With "ultimate" ITS, it is expected that safety on the roads will be drastically improved and the society will be free from massive number of injuries and deaths on the roads as well as from damages to the economy due to accidents and traffic jams.

A preliminary evaluation of the COVID-19 impact on the driverless car industry development is presented.

In general, the 2024 situation with driverless car development shows that the optimism of the 2015-2019 period when many industry analysts predicted L4/L5 driverless cars commercialization is a today event changed to more realism - we are still far away from the fully driverless environment.

The report is intended to technical and managerial staff involved in the advanced ITS development; and for specialists in communications technologies who support such a development.

1.0. Introduction

1.1. Overview
1.2. Report Goal
1.3. Report Scope
1.4. Research Methodology
1.5. Target Audience

2.0. ITS: Roads to Perfection

2.1. Response
2.2. Structure
2.3. ITS Key Technologies
2.4. ITS Main Subsystems - Driverless Car Foundation
2.5. ITS Standardization: In Progress
- 2.5.1. Overview
- 2.5.2. ETSI - Europe
- 2.5.3. U.S.
  - 2.5.3.1. General
  - 2.5.3.2. National Transportation Communications for ITS Protocol (NTCIP)
- 2.5.4. International
  - 2.5.4.1. General
  - 2.5.4.2. ITU
- 2.5.5. Summary
2.6. ITS Applications
- 2.6.1. V2V and V2I
- 2.6.2. Intelligent Vehicles
2.7. ITS Market Statistics
- 2.7.1. General
- 2.7.2. Estimate

3.0. Connected Car

3.1. General - Definition
- 3.1.1. Driving Forces
3.2. Alternatives: Technologies
- 3.2.1. Connected Car - 5.9 GHz DSRC
  - 3.2.1.1. Background
    - 3.2.1.1.1. Recent Developments
  - 3.2.1.2. Efforts - History
  - 3.2.1.3. Place
  - 3.2.1.4. Structure and Protocols
  - 3.2.1.5. Requirements
  - 3.2.1.6. Milestones
  - 3.2.1.7. IEEE 802.11p
    - 3.2.1.7.1. General
    - 3.2.1.7.2. Objectives and Status
    - 3.2.1.7.3. ASTM Contributions
    - 3.2.1.7.4. Characteristics - Benefits
    - 3.2.1.7.5. Issues
  - 3.2.1.8. IEEE 1609
    - 3.2.1.8.1. General
    - 3.2.1.8.2. Overview
    - 3.2.1.8.3. IEEE 1609 in Use
  - 3.2.1.9. ETSI ITS-G5 - Major Features
  - 3.2.1.10. ISO and DSRC
  - 3.2.1.11 5.9. GHz DSRC Components and Procedures
    - 3.2.1.11.1. Components
    - 3.2.1.11.2. Procedures
  - 3.2.1.12. Major Applications
    - 3.2.1.12.1. EPS
  - 3.2.1.13. Spectrum - DSRC
    - 3.2.1.13.1. Channels Designation
  - 3.2.1.14. Services
    - 3.2.1.14.1. Major Services
    - 3.2.1.14.2. Service Categories/QoS
    - 3.2.1.14.3. Service Requirements
  - 3.2.1.15. Summary: 5.9 GHz DSRC Characteristics
  - 3.2.1.16. Market Segment
    - 3.2.1.16.1. Market Drivers
    - 3.2.1.16.2. Market Requirements
    - 3.2.1.16.3. Market Estimate
  - 3.2.1.17. Industry
    - 3.2.1.17.1. Industry Coalition
    - 3.2.1.17.2. Recent Progress
    - 3.2.1.17.3. Vendors
      - AutoTalks
      - Cohda Wireless
      - Delphi
      - Harman
      - Kapsch
      - NXP
      - Siemens
      - Qualcomm
      - u-blox
  - 3.2.1.18. Enhancing 802.11p - 802.11bd
- 3.2.2. Connected Car - Cellular Technologies
  - 3.2.2.1. General
  - 3.2.2.2. 3GPP Activities
    - 3.2.2.2.1. D2D Communications
    - 3.2.2.2.2. C-V2X Broadcast
    - 3.2.2.2.3. Comparison
    - 3.2.2.2.4. Benefits
  - 3.2.2.3. NR V2X - Evolution of C-V2X
3.3. Connected Car - Features
- 3.3.1. Two Technologies - Two Opinions
  - 3.3.1.1. Governments
  - 3.3.1.2. Comparison - 5.9 GHz DSRC and C-V2X
  - 3.3.1.3. Latest FCC Decisions (5.9 GHz Band)
- 3.3.2. Major Applications
- 3.3.3. Policies
- 3.3.4. Choices
- 3.3.5. Functional Technologies
  - 3.3.5.1. Over the Air Updates
- 3.3.6. Network Requirements
- 3.3.7. Market: Connected Car
- 3.3.8. Industry
  - AT&T
  - Airbiquity Inc.
  - Apple
  - Broadcom
  - Ericsson
  - Ficosa
  - GM
  - MobilEye (Intel Company)
  - Nokia
  - Qualcomm
  - Streetline
  - Verizon
  - Visteon
  - Wind River
  - Zubie

4.0. Connected Car - Industry Groups and Standardization

4.1. Industry Groups
- 4.1.1. Open Automotive Alliance
- 4.1.2. 4G Venture Forum for Connected Cars
- 4.1.3. Apple - iOS in the Car
- 4.1.4. GSMA Connected Car Forum
- 4.1.5. Car Connectivity Consortium
4.2. Standards and Regulations
- 4.2.1. Coordination
- 4.2.2. EU
- 4.2.3. U.S.
- 4.2.4. WWW Consortium
- 4.2.5. SAE

5.0. 5G Era

5.1. 5G Timetable (3GPP-ITU)
5.2. Contributors
5.3. 5G Activity Survey
- 5.3.1. NGMN Ltd - Supporter of C-V2X
  - 5.3.1.1. 5G White Papers
- 5.3.2. 5G-PPP (5G Public Private Partnership)
- 5.3.3. 5G Americas
- 5.3.4. GSMA
  - 5.3.4.1. GSMA Report on 5G
    - 5.3.4.1.1. Vision
    - 5.3.4.1.2. The Evolution: From 4G to 5G
    - 5.3.4.1.3. 5G Use Cases
- 5.3.5. Verizon 5G Technology Forum (TF)
- 5.3.6. 3GPP - New Radio (NR)

6.0. 5G Technologies - Main Features

6.1. Look into Future
6.2. Promising Directions
- 6.2.1. Requirements
- 6.2.2. Common Views
  - 6.2.2.1. 5G Spectrum
- 6.2.3. Future - Starts Today
6.3. Issues
6.4. Use Cases
- 6.4.1. General - Characteristics
- 6.4.2. Mobile Broadband
- 6.4.3. Automotive
- 6.4.4. Smart Society

7.0. Evolving of Driverless Car

7.1. Growing Together
7.2. Directions and Issues
7.3. ADAS
7.4. Current Status - Legislation and Insurance
- 7.4.1. U.S.
- 7.4.2. The GB
  - 7.4.2.1. Details
- 7.4.3. China
- 7.4.4. Germany
  - 7.4.4.1. Legal framework for autonomous driving in Germany
7.5. Major Benefits
7.6. Solutions
7.7. Market Projections and Price
7.8. Phases
- 7.8.1. Required Characteristics
7.9. Industry and R&D
- 7.9.1. Automakers
  - 7.9.1.1. Audi
    - 7.9.1.1.1. First Level 3 Car
    - 7.9.1.1.2. Progress
  - 7.9.1.2. Ford
  - 7.9.1.3. GM
  - 7.9.1.4. Nissan
  - 7.9.1.5. Daimler/Mercedes
  - 7.9.1.6. VW and AdaptIVe Consortium
  - 7.9.1.7. Volvo Cars
  - 7.9.1.8. Tesla Motors
  - 7.9.1.9. SAIC
  - 7.9.1.10. BMW
  - 7.9.1.11. Other
- 7.9.2. R&D and Competitors
  - 7.9.2.1. Alphabet/Google - ProjectX -Waymo
    - 7.9.2.1.1. Project
    - 7.9.2.1.2. Reorganization
  - 7.9.2.2. Baidu
  - 7.9.2.3. DOTs
  - 7.9.2.4. Telecom Readiness: Driverless Car - 5G Communications
    - 7.9.2.4.1. Huawei
    - 7.9.2.4.2. Swisscom
  - 7.9.2.5. QNX
  - 7.9.2.6. Continental Automotive
  - 7.9.2.7. Nvidia
- 7.9.3. Start-ups
  - 7.9.3.1. Cruise Automotive
  - 7.9.3.2. Induct Technologies
  - 7.9.3.3. Uber/Aurora
  - 7.9.3.4. Lyft/Toyota
  - 7.9.3.5. Nuro
  - 7.9.3.6. Aurora
  - 7.9.3.7. Poni.ai
  - 7.9.3.8. TuSimple
  - 7.9.3.9. Beep
7.10. Standardization
- 7.10.1. NHTSA
  - 7.10.1.1. Levels
- 7.10.2. SAE International
  - 7.10.2.1. USA Preparedness
- 7.10.3. IEEE
- 7.10.4. AECC
- 7.10.5. Chinese Standards
- 7.10.6. Summary
7.11. COVID-19: Impact on Driverless Car Development
- 7.11.1. Major Changes

8.0. Lidar

8.1. General
- 8.1.1. Categories
- 8.1.2. Typical Characteristics
8.2. Structure and Functionalities
- 8.2.1. Comparison with other Sensors
8.3. Sensors and Bad Weather
8.4. Industry
- AEye
- Aeva
- Analog Devices
- ASC
- Baraja
- Cepton
- Hesai
- Ibeo (subsidiary of SICK AG)
- Innoviz
- Lasertel (a Leonardo Company)
- Luminar
- Lumibird
- LeddarTech
- Newsight Vision
- Neuvition
- On Semiconductor
- Quanergy
- Robosense
- Valeo
- Velodyne
- Waymo (Alphabet)
- XenomatiX
- Chinese Auto Lidar Industry
8.5. Lidars Benefits and Limitations
8.6. Market

9.0. Conclusions

Attachment I: Driverless/Connected Car Patents Survey (2018-2024)

Attachment II: Automotive Lidar-Patents Survey (2018-2024)

Attachment III: CC to vote on auto safety spectrum rules, backed by Auto Innovators (July of 2024)

List of Figures

Figure 1: Wireless Communications: ITS Environment
Figure 2: Europe - Standardization Organizations
Figure 3: U.S. - ITS Standardization Bodies
Figure 4: NTCIP Structure
Figure 5: International -Standardization Bodies - ITS
Figure 6: Estimate: Global Market - ITS ($B)
Figure 7: Estimate: ITS WICT- Global Market ($B)
Figure 8: ITS Equipment Sales by Regions ($B)
Figure 9: Connected Car - Sensors
Figure 10: 5.9 GHz DSRC - Frequencies Allocation and Channelization
Figure 11: 5.9 GHz DSRC - Modified Spectrum Proposal
Figure 12: Industry Cooperation
Figure 13: ITS-5.9 GHz DSRC - Illustration
Figure 14: Communications Model: WAVE
Figure 15: 802.11p - Communications
Figure 16: Signals Flow
Figure 17: Collision Detection/Avoidance System
Figure 18: Work Zone Warning
Figure 19: "Smart" Car
Figure 20: 5.9 GHz DSRC Spectrum Allocation - Worldwide
Figure 21: DSRC: Spectrum Allocation Details
Figure 22: Channel Assignment - 5.9 GHz DSRC
Figure 23: 5.9 GHz DSRC Transmission Characteristics and Channelization
Figure 24: Spectrum Details - Overlapping Wi-Fi
Figure 25: 5.9 GHz DSRC Services
Figure 26: 5.9 GHz DSRC Rate vs. Distance
Figure 27: 5.9 GHz DSRC Protocols - Layers
Figure 28: Estimate: Market Value - U.S. - 5.9 GHz DSRC ($B)
Figure 29: C-V2X Modes of Communications
Figure 30: 3GPP Schedule - Evolution of LTE-based Communications
Figure 31: D2D Communications - Evolution
Figure 32: LTE ProSe Functions - Discovery and Communications
Figure 33: 3GPP - C-V2X Technology Development
Figure 34: Connected Car Functionalities
Figure 35: Network Requirements - Connected Car Connectivity
Figure 36: Estimate - Global Market - Connected Car ($B)
Figure 37: Estimate: CC Global Market - Wireless Equipment Sales ($B)
Figure 38: Estimate - Global - Service Providers Revenue - Connected Car ($B)
Figure 39: Connected Car Penetration - U.S. Auto Market (%)
Figure 40: ITU-R Schedule and Process for IMT-2020
Figure 41: 3GPP - Initial Time Line - 5G Standardization
Figure 42: Initial Time Line - NR Development
Figure 43: 5G Technologies Directions
Figure 44: 5G - related Characteristics
Figure 45: 5G Use Cases - Rate of Transmission and Latency
Figure 46: Estimate: Driverless Cars Sold - Global (%)
Figure 47: Evolution Path - Driverless Car - Vision
Figure 48: NHTSA - Car Automation Levels
Figure 49: Lidar and Radar Properties
Figure 50: Estimate: Lidar Market Size - Global ($B)
Figure 51: Estimate: Automotive Lidar Market Size - Global ($B)

List of Tables

Table 1: ETSI G5 Characteristics
Table 2: Service Categories
Table 3: Service Requirements
Table 4: 5.9 GHz DSRC Characteristics
Table 5: 802.11p vs 802.11bd
Table 6: LTE - D2D and Broadcast Modes - Comparison
Table 7: NR V2X vs 802.11bd
Table 8: Major Parameters - 5.9 GHz DSRC and C-V2X
Table 9: 5G Network Major Characteristics
Table 10: 5G Use Cases
Table 11: Revisions
Table 12: Driverless Car Development - Covid-19 Impact
Table 13: Projections
Table 14: Lidar Characteristics - Automotive Applications
Table 15: Chinese Auto-lidar Industry
Table 16: Lidar and Video Camera Properties

Ultimate ITS - Autonomous Car in 5G Era: Markets, Standardization, Technologies

Description

Table of Contents

List of Tables

The goal of this report is to:

Table of Contents

1.0. Introduction

2.0. ITS: Roads to Perfection

3.0. Connected Car

4.0. Connected Car - Industry Groups and Standardization

5.0. 5G Era

6.0. 5G Technologies - Main Features

7.0. Evolving of Driverless Car

8.0. Lidar

9.0. Conclusions

Attachment I: Driverless/Connected Car Patents Survey (2018-2024)

Attachment II: Automotive Lidar-Patents Survey (2018-2024)

Attachment III: CC to vote on auto safety spectrum rules, backed by Auto Innovators (July of 2024)

List of Figures

List of Tables