Food Market Outlook 2024: Opportunities & Challenges With Pricing, Convenience, Sustainability & More

Description

U.S. Food Market Outlook 2024 examines product availability; surveys retail channel trends; and analyzes consumer trends and motivations. This report focuses on the market for selected food products sold to consumers in the United States through retail channels. All retail channels of distribution are covered in market sizing and discussion, including supermarkets and grocery stores, mass merchandisers and supercenters, warehouse clubs, natural food stores, convenience stores, drugstores, dollar stores, and direct-sales channels including online. Market size data and projections are provided at the retail sales level.

Report Methodology

The information contained in U.S. Food Market Outlook 2024 was developed from a variety of primary and secondary research sources.

Primary research includes interviews with food and beverage market experts and participation in and attendance at food industry events. Primary research also includes the Packaged Facts National Online Consumer survey, a quarterly poll of U.S. adult consumers (age 18+) conducted by Packaged Facts to analyze purchasing patterns and attitudes with regard to food and beverage preferences. Supplementing Packaged Facts' exclusive survey is an extensive analysis of MRI-Simmons' National Consumer Study, which is based on approximately 25,000 adult respondents surveyed annually.

Secondary research entailed gathering data from relevant trade, business, and government sources, as well as company promotional literature and annual reports.

This report contains dozens of numerical tables and charts, as well as numerous product photographs. Our estimates of market size and company performance are based on various sources including reported revenues of product manufacturers and retailers, relevant publications, and other market research sources. The analysis in this report also draws, as a background source, on retail sales tracking data from mass market and specialty channels.

Product Code: LA18741861

Table of Content

CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

FOOD TRENDS
Figure 1-1. Food Market Trends
SCOPE
METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 2: TRENDS FROM THE PANDEMIC TO THE INFLATION ERA

CONCERNS ABOUT COVID-19 EXPOSURE REMAIN
Most Still Consider the Pandemic a Health Threat
Table 2-1. Coronavirus Health Concerns: "I am concerned about the...", 2021 - 2023 (% of consumers)
Vaccination for the Flu and COVID-19
Table 2-2. Consumer Vaccination Plans, 2023 (% of consumers)
Table 2-3. Consumer Vaccination Rates, 2024 (% of consumers)
Some Consumers Continue to Wear Masks in Public and Avoid Crowds
Table 2-4. Consumer Habits Regarding Masks, Crowds, and Testing for COVID-19, 2024 (% of consumers)
NEGATIVE PERSONAL EFFECTS OF THE PANDEMIC

Reporting Negative Mental States in

Figure 2-1. Current Feelings on Mental and Physical Symptoms Compared to "Normal" or Preferred Level, 2023 (% of consumers)

Continuing Mental and Physical Health Effects in

Table 2-5. Current Feelings on Mental and Physical Symptoms Compared to "Normal" or Preferred Level, 2024 (% of consumers)
Stress Levels and Impact on Food/Beverage Consumption

Figure 2-2. Stress Levels and Impact of Stress on Healthfulness of Food/Beverage Consumption,
Figure 2-3. Impact of Food Consumption on Mental or Emotional Well-Being,

WORK-FROM-HOME TRENDS
Working from Home in 2023: Work from Home Ability and Frequency
Table 2-6. Ability to Work from Home and Frequency of Remote Work, 2023 (% of consumers)
Work Habits in 2024: Typical Work Weeks
Table 2-7. "How Much of Your Typical Work Week is Spent at the Following Locations?", 2024 (% of employed consumers)
Work Habits in 2024: Typical Work Arrangements
Figure 2-4. Typical Work Arrangements (Fully Remote, Hybrid, and Traditional), 2024 (% of employed consumers)
HOME COOKING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
Table 2-8 Home Cooking Behaviors, Agree Completely, 2013 - 2023 (% of US adults)
Table 2-9 Food Prepared From Scratch In Last 6 Months, 2013 - 2023 (% of households that make food from scratch)
INFLATION AND PRICES
Many Consumers Are Concerned about Inflation and Rising Food Prices
Table 2-10. Consumer Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2023 - 2024 (% of consumers)
Vast Majority of Consumers Have Noticed the Rising Cost of Food; Many Changing Purchasing Decisions
Figure 2-5. Noticing the Rising Cost of Food and Beverages over the Past Year, 2023 (% of consumers)
Figure 2-6. Impact of Rising Costs on Food/Beverage Purchasing, 2023 (% of consumers)

Consumers Find Price More Important for Food Purchase Decisions in

Figure 2-7. Purchase Drivers for Food and Beverage Purchase Decisions, 2023 (% of consumers)
Cutting Back on Household Expenses
Table 2-11. Consumer Spending on "Extras", 2023 - 2024 (% of consumers)
Table 2-12. "If a food item is on sale, I buy multiple units to stock up." Agree Completely, 2013 - 2023 (% of US adults)

CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW

FOOD RETAIL SALES FORECAST
Table 3-1. US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2018, 2023 - 2028P (million dollars and percent change)
Table 3-2. US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 (million dollars and percent change)
Table 3-3. US Retail Dollar and Volume Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 (percent change)
Table 3-4. Annual Price Changes by Top Food Categories, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 (percent change)
DISTRIBUTION TRENDS
E-Commerce and Grocery Delivery
Table 3-5. Purchased Groceries Over Internet in Last 30 days, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US adults)
Faster and More Convenient Home Delivery
Drone Delivery
In-Home Delivery
DoorDash Expands SNAP Payments to More Grocers
SNACKING
Frequency of Snacking and Reasons for Snacking
Figure 3-1 Frequency of Snacking, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Figure 3-2 Reasons for Snacking, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Figure 3-3 Most Common Snacks by Day Part, 2023 (percent of consumers)
HOME MEAL KITS
Table 3-6. Consumer Use of Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Table 3-7. Consumer Frequency of Food Ordering Methods in the Last 3 Months, 2024 (percent of consumers who have used each method in the last 12 months)
HOME MEAL DELIVERY
Table 3-8. Consumer Use of Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Table 3-9. Consumer Frequency of Food Ordering Methods in the Last 3 Months, 2024 (percent of consumers who have used each method in the last 12 months)

CHAPTER 4: FOOD TRENDS

CEA-INDOOR FARMING
PLANT-BASED ALTERNATIVES
90% of Consumers Primarily Omnivores or Flexitarians
Table 4-1. Prevalence of Plant-Forward Eating Habits/Diet Control, 2020 - 2023 (percent of consumers)
Plant-Based Meat and Poultry Alternatives
Blends
Plant-Based, Dairy-Free Alternatives
Ice Cream
Yogurt
Cheese
NON-PLANT-BASED ALTERNATIVES
Cultivated Meat Facing Challenges
Other Alternatives
Animal-Free Dairy
RESPONSIBLE NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
Packaging
Figure 4-1. Willingness to Take Action About Sustainability, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Figure 4-2. Importance of Sustainability Practices, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Figure 4-3. Affordability of Sustainable Lifestyle, 2024 (percent of consumers)
The Multifaceted Goals of Sustainable Packaging
Figure 4-4. Most Important Sustainable/Eco-Friendly Packaging Features, by age group 2024 (percent of consumers)
Priorities in Conflict
Figure 4-5 Consumer Perceptions of Packaging Materials' Eco-Friendliness 2024 (percent of consumers)
HEALTHIER-FOR-YOU
Figure 4-6. Priority of Selected Food Characteristics, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Table 4-2. "I Buy Food Labeled As...", 2017 - 2023 (percent of US adults)
Natural
"Natural" Labels Most Impactful When Grocery Shopping
Figure 4-7. Influential Labels When Purchasing Food, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Healthy Food
Fresh and Low Sugar Top Healthy Food Definers
Figure 4-8. Defining Healthy Food, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Reduced or Zero Sugar
Avoiding or Limiting Sugar Intake
Figure 4-9. Avoiding or Limiting Sugars, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugar Intake
Figure 4-10. Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugars, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Sugar Continues to Be Preferred Over Low/No-Calorie Sweeteners
Figure 4-11. Preferences for Sweeteners, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Processed Foods
Figure 4-12. Consideration of Processed Foods, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Incorporating Vegetables
Table 4-3. Consumption Rates for Fresh Vegetables, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US households)
Diet-Friendly
Figure 4-13. Adherence to a Diet/Eating Pattern in the Past Year, 2019 - 2023 (percent of consumers)
Keto
Table 4-4. "Are you familiar with (heard of it and know what is involved in following it) any of the following diet and eating philosophies?", 2021 - 2023 (percent of consumers)
High Protein
Weight Loss
Figure 4-14. Eating Pattern/Diet Motivations in the Past Year, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Weight-loss Drugs
MINDFUL INDULGENCE
IGNITE THE SENSES
COMFORT & NOSTALGIA
KID-FOCUSED
RESTAURANT/CHEF QUALITY AT HOME
INFLUENCER INSPIRED
Table 4-5. Factors That Entice People to Try New Foods, Strongly Impact, 2023 (percent of consumers)
PARTNERSHIPS A WIN-WIN
PRIVATE LABEL STILL OUTPERFORMING NATIONAL BRANDS

Table 4-6. Selected Private Label Department Dollar Sales Growth, 2021, 2022, 2023 (percent change)

Table 4-7. Consumption Rates in last 6 months for Selected Store Brand Foods, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US households that eat selected product)

CHAPTER 5: CEREAL

SALES OUTLOOK

Market Increasing Slightly to Over $13 Billion in

Table 5-1. US Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 - 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
Category Sales
Figure 5-1. US Cereal Category Retail Dollar Shares 2019, 2023 (percent)
Table 5-2. US Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016 - 2028 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 6: CHOCOLATE CANDY

SALES OUTLOOK

Market Increases to Over $35 Billion in

Table 6-1. US Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 - 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
Segment Sales
Figure 6-1. US Chocolate Candy Category Retail Dollar Shares, 2023, 2028 (percent)
Table 6-2. US Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016 - 2028 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 7: COOKIES

SALES OUTLOOK

Market to Exceed $18 Billion in

Table 7-1. US Cookies Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 - 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 8: FRESH BREAD

SALES OUTLOOK

Market Over $22 Billion in

Table 8-1. US Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 - 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
Segment Sales
Figure 8-1. US Fresh Bread Category Retail Dollar Shares, 2019, 2023 (percent)
Table 8-2. US Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016 - 2028 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 9: FRESH PACKAGED SALADS

SALES OUTLOOK

Fresh Packaged Salad Sales Increasing to Over $9 Billion in

Table 9-1. US Fresh Packaged Salads Retail Sales, 2018 - 2028 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
Segment Sales
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Packaged Salad Consumption Still Higher Than Pre-Pandemic Levels
Table 9-2. Consumption Rates for Packaged Fresh Salad and Fresh Produce, 2013 - 2023 (percent of households)
Packaged Salad Eaters Don't Consume That Often
Table 9-3. Packages of Packaged Fresh Salad Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US households that eat packaged fresh salad)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
CEA-Indoor Farming
Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
Global Inspiration
CHAPTER 10: FROZEN DINNERS/ENTREES
SALES OUTLOOK

Market Increasing to Nearly $16 Billion in

Table 10-1. US Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 - 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
Category Sales
Figure 10-1. US Frozen Dinners/Entrees Segment Retail Dollar Shares, 2019, 2028 (percent)
Table 10-2. US Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Segment, 2016 - 2028 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
CHAPTER 11: FROZEN PIZZA
SALES OUTLOOK

Market Approaches $9 Billion in

Table 11-1. US Frozen Pizza Retail Sales, 2018 - 2028 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Frozen Pizza Eaten by Only Half of US Households
Table 11-2. Consumption Rates for Frozen Pizza, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US households)
Frozen Pizzas Eaters Don't Eat Them That Often
Table 11-3. Packages of Frozen Pizza Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US households that eat frozen pizza)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
Mindful Indulgence
Ultra-Indulgent
Ignite the Senses
Influencer Inspired
Responsible NPD
CHAPTER 12: ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES
SALES OUTLOOK

Market Increasing to Over $19 Billion in

Table 12-1. US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Sales, 2018 - 2028 (million dollars, million units, and percent change)
Category and Segment Sales

Figure 12-1. US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Value Shares by Segment, 2019, 2023 (percent)

Frozen Novelties Will Continue to Outperform Ice Cream
Table 12-2. US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Dollar Sales: By Category & Segment, 2016 - 2028 (million dollars and percent)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Regular (Full-Fat) Ice Cream Overwhelmingly Preferred
Table 12-3. Types of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten Most Often, 2017 - 2023 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)
Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaters Don't Consume Much
Table 12-4. Pints of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2016 - 2023 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Ignite the Senses
Comfort & Nostalgia
Mindful Indulgence
Dairy Alternatives
Animal-Free Dairy
Responsible NPD
CHAPTER 13: MEAL & SNACK BARS
SALES OUTLOOK

Market to Exceed $10 Billion in

Table 13-1. US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales, 2018 - 2028 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
Category Sales
Figure 13-1. US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Dollar Shares by Category, 2016, 2019, 2023 (percent)
Table 13-2. US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales: By Category, Segment 2016 - 2028 (million dollars)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Heaviest-Consuming Snack Bar Group Expands
Table 13-3. Number of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US households that eat breakfast/cereal/granola bars)
Key Brand Differences
Table 13-4. Consumption Rates for Selected Brands of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2013 - 2023 (percent of households that eat bars)
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KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Mindful Indulgence
Healthier-For-You
Ignite the Senses
Kid-Focused
Responsible NPD
CHAPTER 14: MEAT AND POULTRY
SALES OUTLOOK

Market Approaching $139 Billion in

Table 14-1. US Meat and Poultry Retail Sales, 2018 - 2028 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
Category and Segment Sales
Meat Continues to Dominate Category Sales
Figure 14-1. US Meat and Poultry Category/Segment Retail Dollar Shares, 2023, 2028 (percent)
Table 14-2. US Meat and Poultry Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category/Segment, 2016 - 2028 (million dollars and percent change)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Poultry Preferred Over Meat but Gap Shrinking
Table 14-3. Consumption Rates for Meat & Poultry, 2013 --2023 (percent of households)
Consumers Overwhelming Prefer Fresh Over Frozen
Table 14-4. Consumption Rates for Fresh versus Frozen Meat & Poultry, 2013 - 2023 (percent of households that eats meat or poultry)
Bacon and Sausage Struggle to Hold Pandemic Gains
Table 14-5. Consumption Rates for Selected Processed Meats and Poultry, 2013 - 2023 (percent of households)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
Ignite the Senses
Plant-based Alternatives
Blends
Cultivated Meat Facing Challenges
Other Alternatives
Responsible NPD
CHAPTER 15: NATURAL AND SPECIALTY CHEESE
SALES OUTLOOK
Table 15-1. US Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 - 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
Category Sales
Figure 15-1. US Natural and Specialty Cheese Category Retail Dollar Shares, 2019, 2023 (percent)
Table 15-2. US Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016 - 2028 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
CHAPTER 16: SALTY SNACKS
SALES OUTLOOK

Market to Reach $51 Billion in

Table 16-1. US. Salty Snacks Retail Sales, 2018 - 2028 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
Segment Sales
Potato Chips Losing Share in The Future
Figure 16-1. US. Salty Snack Retail Dollar Shares by Category, 2019, 2028 (percent)
Growth Driven by Tortilla/Tostada Chips & Non-Chip Salty Snacks
Table 16-2. US. Salty Snack Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016 - 2028 (million dollars and percent change)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Potato Chips Still Most Preferred But Trending Down
Table 16-3. Consumption Rates for Selected Salty Snacks, 2013 - 2023 (percent of households)
Chip Eaters Don't Consume Much
Table 16-4. Bags of Potato Chips Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US households that eat potato chips)
Table 16-5. Bags of Corn/Tortilla/Other Chips & Cheese Snacks Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2013 -2023 (percent of US households that eat corn/tortilla/other chips & cheese snacks)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Ignite the Senses
Mindful Indulgence
Comfort & Nostalgia
Responsible NPD
CHAPTER 17: SOUP
SALES OUTLOOK

Market Increasing to Over $10 Billion in

Table 17-1. US Soup Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 - 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds/16oz. equivalents, and percent change)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
CHAPTER 18: YOGURT
SALES OUTLOOK

Market Increasing to $13 Billion in

Table 18-1. US Yogurt Retail Sales, 2018 - 2028 (million dollars, million pints, and percent change)
Category Sales
Figure 18-1. US Yogurt Retail Dollar Shares by Category, 2016, 2023, 2028 (percent)
Table 18-2. US Yogurt Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016 - 2028 (million dollars)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
After Pandemic Boost, Yogurt Consumption Relatively Steady
Table 18-3. Consumption Rates for Yogurt, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US households)
Regular (Full-Fat) Yogurt Still Preferred
Table 18-4. Types of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
Plain and Flavored Yogurt Gain at Expense of Fruit Varieties
Table 18-5. Kinds of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
Greatest Growth from Those Eating the Least
Table 18-6. Containers of Yogurt Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Healthier-For-You
Dairy-Free and Plant-Based Alternatives
Increase Kids' Consumption
Ignite the Senses
Snacking
Responsible NPD