PUBLISHER: Guidehouse Insights | PRODUCT CODE: 1296108
PUBLISHER: Guidehouse Insights | PRODUCT CODE: 1296108
Developing Solutions for Recycling End-of-Life EV Batteries
Plug-in EV (PEV) sales, which reached 10.4 million in 2022, are projected to accelerate to 57 million vehicles by 2030, a global market share of 47%. Demand for PEV batteries will increase in parallel with PEV sales. An increasing number of PEV batteries will eventually reach the end of their useful life and require an alternative solution to being discarded into landfills, which violates environmental goals, policies, and regulations. Recycling is considered a viable solution for end-of-life PEV batteries. It is environmentally sustainable and it meets broad government and industry strategic goals of mitigating international supply chain and geo-political risks by decreasing reliance on material extraction and refinement dominated by a handful of countries.
North American light duty PEV sales are estimated to reach 6.6 million units by 2030 and PEV battery recycling is viewed as a strategic solution to keep these materials in a closed-loop supply chain in which 95% to 98% of key battery materials are recoverable and can be directed into new battery production. Assuming a minimum 10-year lifespan, nearly 667,000 PEV batteries—the number of PEVs sold in 2021—will be available for recycling in the US by 2031.
This Guidehouse Insights report presents forecasts for future PEV sales, PEV battery production, and the potential volume of PEV batteries available for recycling. It includes an overview of potential business models for establishing a PEV battery recycling market and identifies key incentives and regulations that could ensure the safe removal, discharge, handling, and transportation of end-of-life PEV batteries to recycling facilities.
Table of Contents
Spark
Context
Recommendations
PEVs Sales Are On The Rise and They Need Batteries
Global EV Sales Have Grown Significantly in the Last Five Years
EV Sales Drive Global Battery Demand
What Does the Battery Market Size Mean for US EV Sales?
US and Canada Battery Demand Could Lag Supply
The EV Battery Recycling Market in the US Is Forecast to Grow
The EV Battery Recycling Process Has Multiple Benefits
Valuing Materials from EV Battery Recycling
Justifying Recycling Costs
Transporting Used EV Batteries
Future Battery Costs Will Determine Competition with Recycled Batteries
Regulations, Policies, and Business Models Affect the Recycling Market
EV Ecosystem Innovators Must Consider the Closed-Loop Battery Supply
Chain
Core Charges Could Be Problematic for EV Batteries
Recyclers Could Pay for End-of-Life Batteries
Manufacturers Could Pay for Collecting End-of-Life Batteries
Batteries Could Be Leased
Other Incentives and Regulations Are Needed
List of Tables
Potential Recyclable Commodity Value by Type of Battery Composition
List of Figures
- EV Sales, Percentage of Vehicles Sales, and Number of EV Batteries Available for Recycling, Worldwide, 2022-2031
- Global BEV and PHEV Sales by Region, Worldwide, 2022-2031
GWh of Battery Production in 2022 and Battery Capacity Needed for 2030 Battery Demand
- EV Sales, Percentage of Vehicles Sales, and Number of EV Batteries Available for Recycling, US, 2022-2031
Cathode Supply Chain
US EV Battery Demand for Stated Policies, Sustainable Development, and Average Scenarios with a Range of EV Batteries Available for Recycling: Low (25%), Base (50%), and High (75%)
EV Recycled Batteries as a Percentage of 2025 and 2030 Base and High Production Levels for High (75%), Base (50%), and Low (25%) EV Battery Recycling Scenarios
Lifecycle of an EV Battery: Refurbishing and Re-Introduction into the Manufacturing Process
Hydrometallurgy Extraction and Cathode Production Process
Hydro-to-Cathode Extraction and Production Process
Recycling Facilities and State Regulatory Environments
IRA Stipulations for Raw Mineral Battery Composition Requirements from the US or Countries with an FT
