PUBLISHER: MTN Consulting, LLC | PRODUCT CODE: 1473287
PUBLISHER: MTN Consulting, LLC | PRODUCT CODE: 1473287
Network Operator Capex Ends 2023 at $543B, Down 3% YoY, Webscalers Guiding Up, Telcos Moderating
This note summarizes 2023 capex results for each of three segments of network operators tracked by MTN Consulting: telco, webscale, and carrier-neutral. The note also discusses capex-related news from early 2024, and presents an informal update to our December 2023 spending forecast. That forecast projects capex in 2024, by segment, to amount to: $309 billion (B) for telco (2023 actual: $315B), $203B for webscale (2023: $192B), and $39B for carrier-neutral (2023: $35B). That would total to $552B, just 1.6% growth above the 2023 actual. While we continue to expect telco spending to be tightly controlled in 2024, the generative AI (GenAI) hype will push webscale & carrier-neutral capex higher than expected by at least another $10-20 billion. Telco capex in 2024, though, is likely to come in about $10-20B less than anticipated last year, roughly offsetting the webscale/CNNO outperformance. We will provide a formal update to our spending forecast within the next 3 months.
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Table of Contents
- Summary
- 2023 capex came in ~$30B less than we expected in 2022
- Telco spending has weak second half in 2023, off to slow start in 2024
- Webscale capex was $192B in 2023, a bit light, but is booming in YTD2024
- Carrier-neutral capex was $35B in 2023, with upside driven by hyperscale
- Generative AI and telecom
- Appendix
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Capex by operator segment in 2023, actual versus projected
