PUBLISHER: MTN Consulting, LLC | PRODUCT CODE: 1379504
PUBLISHER: MTN Consulting, LLC | PRODUCT CODE: 1379504
Capex Forecast Check, 3Q23 - Webscale & CNNO: Preliminary Results for 3Q23: Full-year Capex Likely to be 5-10% Lower than 7/23 Forecast, but Tech Portion of Spend is Trending Upwards
This short note provides an early review of 3Q23 market growth and capex spending figures for two of the three operator segments we cover: webscale, and carrier-neutral. (Our third segment, telco, will be addressed in a few weeks as more earnings reports are available.) The analysis is based on a review of over 80% of reporting companies in the two segments. Our official forecast for 2023 calls for $218B of capex for webscalers, and $39B for carrier-neutral operators (CNNOs). Market figures through 3Q23 suggest actual capex is likely to be closer to $200B and $36B for the two segments, respectively. This is a small change, however, and the tech portion of webscale capex is rising modestly. Moreover, new data from DigitalBridge makes clear that private equity-funded spend is strong in the data center CNNO market, helping to offset a weaker public CNNO market. Consequently, the vendor opportunity in selling to these two markets in 2023 is roughly the same size as forecast.
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Table of Contents
Summary
Introduction
Analysis
- Webscale
- Carrier-neutral
- Generative AI
Outlook
Appendix
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Capex projection for Webscale and CNNO market (US$B), per 7/23 forecast
- Figure 2: YoY revenue growth rates for webscale's big 4 providers
- Figure 3: Capex for select* CNNOs in 3Q21-3Q23 (US$M)
