Commercial Aviation - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2024 - 2029)

The Commercial Aviation Market size is estimated at USD 218.94 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 271.96 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.43% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

Key Highlights

• Largest Market by Sub-Aircraft Type - Passenger Aircraft : The sub-aircraft type segment is dominated by passenger aircraft. Increasing air passenger traffic and the growing middle-class population in emerging countries are driving the market's growth.
• Largest Market by Body Type - Narrowbody Aircraft : A fleet of narrowbody aircraft adds flexibility in terms of fleet management and helps reduce the operating costs of the airlines, thereby resulting in its rapid adoption.
• Largest Market by Country - United States : The country is expected to register a major revenue share during 2022-2028 due to increasing levels of air transportation and a rising number of commercial aircraft orders from major airlines.
• Largest Market by Region - North America : Rising domestic and international air traffic levels in the region are driving the airlines to procure more aircraft, thereby boosting the growth of the regional commercial aircraft market.

Commercial Aircraft Market Trends

Passenger Aircraft is the largest Sub Aircraft Type

• According to the UNWTO, tourism contributes 10% of the world's GDP, making it one of the main sources of income in the modern world, with 57% of cross-border travelers using aircraft. In the last 15 years, the number of passengers in commercial aviation has doubled.
• Over the next 20 years, Airbus estimates that more than 38,000 new airplanes will be delivered, some of which will replace the current fleet's more aged aircraft.
• The COVID-19 pandemic affected air passenger traffic globally in 2020, reducing flight activity and impacting airline cash flows. As a result, most airlines decided to cancel or defer their aircraft orders. However, the commercial aviation industry recovered gradually in 2021, which led to a significant increase in aircraft deliveries compared to 2020. Airlines are looking for aircraft with better fuel efficiency and range, and the development of newer aircraft will help the OEMs attract more airline customers in the years to come.
• Since the domestic passenger demand is anticipated to return to pre-COVID-19 levels earlier than the international passenger demand, the market for narrow-body aircraft is anticipated to rebound faster than the demand for wide-body aircraft. The 737 MAX's return to service in late 2020 may also support the expansion of the narrowbody market.

North America is the largest Region

• The COVID-19 pandemic had a huge negative impact on the commercial aircraft market due to a halt in global transportation. The stringent lockdowns enforced across the world also significantly impacted the economic conditions of the commercial aircraft market. Therefore, in 2021, international passenger demand was 75.5% lower than in 2019.
• During the forecast period, the Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to have one of the fastest-growing markets. Domestic passenger traffic was progressively increasing in 2021 despite the pandemic's effects on the region's aviation sector. In 2021, the region constituted 27.5% of global air passenger travel worldwide. Asia-Pacific may have around 40% of total commercial aircraft deliveries during 2022-2028.
• North America is expected to be the second-highest-growing region after Asia-Pacific. In terms of aircraft deliveries, North America's commercial aircraft accounted for almost 29% of the total commercial aircraft worldwide from 2016 to 2021. Aircraft deliveries are expected to rise by 57% during 2022-2028. North America may be accountable for 27% of total aircraft deliveries during the forecast period.
• Europe's commercial aircraft accounted for 17% of the total commercial aircraft worldwide from 2016 to 2021. The Middle East held a share of around 6.5% of the global air passenger traffic, while the African region held a share of around 1.9%. Air travel in South America contracted to 199.15 million air passengers in 2021 compared to 210.73 million passengers traveled in 2020. During the forecast period, Europe, Middle East & Africa, and South America may account for around 20%, 9%, and 3% of total aircraft deliveries, respectively.

Commercial Aircraft Industry Overview

The Commercial Aviation Market is fairly consolidated, with the top five companies occupying 90.62%. The major players in this market are Airbus SE, ATR, Embraer, The Boeing Company and United Aircraft Corporation (sorted alphabetically).

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