Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Forecast Update, 2024-2028

This IDC study presents an update to Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Forecast, 2024-2028 (IDC #US52098524, May 2024). It integrates IDC's current IT hardware and consumer electronics products forecasts through 2028 as well as updated HDD and SSD technology transition assumptions. This forecast also reflects the updated HDD and SSD attach rate assumptions in systems, particularly where the mass storage device is fungible in the system or device.Underpinning this forecast for the worldwide HDD market are IDC's assumptions regarding HDD technology transitions that will affect the pace of HDD areal density growth (see Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Component Forecast, 2024-2028, IDC #US52376924, June 2024), HDD product transitions, and HDD price-per-gigabyte declines for each HDD product segment."Demand continues to accelerate in the second half of 2024 and the industry appears to have underpinned demand visibility that will support this trend through calendar 2025, and in some cases well into 2026, with one limiting factor being the supply chain's ability to support the growth through execution on technology transitions, customer qualifications, and volume ramps," according to Ed Burns, research director, Hard Disk Drive and Storage Technologies at IDC. "The HDD market in 2024 benefited from a normalized inventory environment at the cloud SPs, and to some extent a return to spending on storage after an extended period spending on compute, coupled with a stronger OEM demand environment. The long-term demand drivers, especially the long-term growth of data and the increasing value of data, are expected to drive increasing demand for storage through the end of the forecast period. Some of this growth may be limited by more conservative capital investment strategies by the HDD suppliers in the early years of this long-term forecast, which may translate into limitations on manufacturing capacity in the outer years."