Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Forecast, 2024-2028

This IDC study presents an update to Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Forecast Update, 2023-2027 (IDC #US51423423, December 2023). It integrates IDC's current IT hardware and consumer electronics products forecasts through 2028 as well as updated HDD and SSD technology transition assumptions. This forecast also reflects the updated HDD and SSD attach rate assumptions in systems, particularly where the mass storage device is fungible in the system or device.Underpinning this forecast for the worldwide HDD market are IDC's assumptions regarding HDD technology transitions that will affect the pace of HDD areal density growth (see Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Component Forecast, 2023-2027, IDC #US50873423, June 2023), HDD product transitions, and HDD price-per-gigabyte declines for each HDD product segment."Demand is beginning to accelerate in the first half of 2024 and the industry looks poised to continue this trend through calendar 2024 with the main limiting factor being customer order lead times and the speed at which the suppliers are able to restart idled capacity," according to Ed Burns, research director, Hard Disk Drive and Storage Technologies, IDC. "The HDD market in 2024 is benefiting from a normalized inventory environment at the cloud SPs coupled with a stronger OEM demand environment. The long-term demand drivers, such as the rapid growth of data created and increasing value of data, are likely to result in more data that will be stored. This is expected to support strong growth for enterprise and video surveillance HDDs through the forecast period. Some of this growth may be limited for HDDs due to a conservative capital investment strategy by the HDD suppliers in the early years of the long-term forecast."