A Second Trump Administration Part 2: A Deep Dive into Energy and Commodities

Table of Contents

Executive summary

Power and renewables

• Power demand: load growth will remain resilient
• US solar: the near-term pipeline is robust and longer dated projects face policy risk
• Offshore wind: deployment risk arises from 2040
• Onshore wind: potential changes to the IRA present downside risk
• Energy storage: exposed to policy changes in the IRA
• Corporate trends: investors will reassess their US wind
• Domestic gas demand: deregulation supports demand growth through 2030

Emerging technologies

• Carbon removal technologies: the 45Q remains safe as other IRA incentives are pressured
• Low-carbon hydrogen: near term momentum slows until 45V guidance emerges
• Nuclear Small Modular Reactors (SMRs): policy and market support to continue

Commodities

• Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): permitting reform is a good first step to boosting new US LNG supplies
• Oil markets: slower economic growth drives oil global demand and prices lower
• L48 upstream: activity shifts on the margin while net zero goals remain
• US refining: trade tensions benefit traditional refiners while renewable fuels lose steam
• US chemicals: feedstock advantages and potential tariff protections boost competitiveness. Retaliatory trade risk rises.
• Coal: short-term demand uplift but no return to the halcyon days of the past
• Metals: US tariff policies risk pushing metals prices higher

Trade, carbon, and methane

• Trade tariffs: the world should brace itself for more protectionism
• Carbon: state-level compliance markets remain
• Methane regulations: the mandate from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will be challenged
• Environmental Social and Governance (ESG): investors will continue to push for disclosures

Tables and charts

This report includes 1 images and tables including:

• US net-energy related emissions, Bt CO2e