Obesity in Major Markets, Disease Management, Epidemiology, Pipeline Assessment, Unmet Needs and Drug Forecast to 2031

List of Tables

This report covers the 7MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan) and provides an Excel-based forecast model for the obesity market through 2031.

GlobalData estimates sales of obesity therapeutics to be approximately $10.5 billion across the 7MM in 2021. By 2031, GlobalData expects the obesity market to grow at a strong compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.3%, reaching sales of $173.5 billion by the end of the forecast period.

Major drivers of growth in the obesity market during the forecast period include the following:

There will be an increase in therapies with longer duration of action, such as Novo Nordisk's Wegovy (semaglutide) and CagriSema (semaglutide + cagrilintide), Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, retatrutide, and bimagrumab (BYM338), and Amgen's MariTide, consequently improving patient compliance for obesity patients who may already experience a heavy treatment burden due to comorbid conditions.
The diabetic population is set to grow in line with the increased prevalence of risk factors such as obesity.
Therapies with new routes of administration will enter the market, such as Novo Nordisk's oral

semaglutide (NN-9932), Eli Lilly's orforglipron, Structure Therapeutics' GSBR-1290, and other oral

agents with other mechanisms of actions, such as monlunabant and enobosarm.

Major barriers to growth in the obesity market during the forecast period will include the following:

Expensive therapies will face reimbursement challenges in markets where cost-conscious decisions are increasingly implemented.
Disease awareness is still an unmet need in the obesity space and many patients are still not offered pharmacotherapy, limiting medicine uptake.
Shortages of blockbuster medications can disrupt patient treatment and drive patients to buy illegitimate versions of weight loss drugs, which is a risk both for patients and for the reputation of pharmaceutical companies.
The expiry of established brands, such as Saxenda, leaves these products vulnerable to sales erosion.

Scope

Overview of obesity, including epidemiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
Annualized obesity therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns forecast from 2021 to 2031.
Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping, and implications of these factors for the obesity therapeutics market.
Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for obesity treatment. The most promising candidates in late-stage development are profiled.
Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global obesity therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to Buy

Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the 7MM obesity therapeutics market.
Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the 7MM obesity therapeutics market in the future.
Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

Product Code: GDHC310PIDR-7M

About GlobalData

1 Obesity: Executive Summary

1.1 The obesity market will grow significantly during the forecast period, reaching sales of $173.5 billion in 2031
1.2 Key players will maintain their competitive position
1.3 While the outlook in obesity improves, opportunities remain to improve patient outcomes
1.4 Late-stage pipeline therapies are anticipated to drive growth in the obesity market
1.5 What do physicians think?

2 Introduction

2.1 Catalyst
2.2 Related reports
2.3 Upcoming reports

3 Disease Overview

3.1 Etiology and pathophysiology
- 3.1.1 Etiology
- 3.1.2 Pathophysiology
3.2 Classification or staging systems

4 Epidemiology

4.1 Disease background
4.2 Risk factors and comorbidities
4.3 Global and historical trends
- 4.3.1 Total prevalence of overweight
- 4.3.2 Total prevalence of obesity
- 4.3.3 Diagnosed prevalence of overweight
- 4.3.4 Diagnosed prevalence of obesity
4.4 Forecast methodology
- 4.4.1 Sources
- 4.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods
- 4.4.3 Total prevalent cases of overweight
- 4.4.4 Total prevalent cases of obesity
- 4.4.5 Total prevalent cases by BMI
- 4.4.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight, obesity and obesity by BMI class
- 4.4.7 Diagnosed incident cases of bariatric surgery
4.5 Epidemiological forecast for overweight and obesity (2021-31)
- 4.5.1 Total prevalent cases of overweight
- 4.5.2 Total prevalent cases of obesity
- 4.5.3 Diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight
- 4.5.4 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight
- 4.5.5 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight
- 4.5.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity
- 4.5.7 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity
- 4.5.8 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity
- 4.5.9 Diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by BMI class
- 4.5.10 Diagnosed incident cases of bariatric surgery
4.6 Discussion
- 4.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight
- 4.6.2 COVID-19 impact
- 4.6.3 Limitations of the analysis
- 4.6.4 Strengths of the analysis

5 Disease Management

5.1 Diagnosis and treatment overview
- 5.1.1 Diagnosis overview
- 5.1.2 Treatment overview
5.2 KOL insights on disease management
- 5.2.1 Guidelines on diagnosis and treatment
- 5.2.2 Treatment approach

6 Current Treatment Options

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

7.1 Overview
7.2 Increased efficacy and weight loss maintenance
7.3 Longer-acting therapy
7.4 Cost of therapy
7.5 Increased public awareness
7.6 Availability/accessibility of specialists

8 R&D Strategies

8.1 Overview
- 8.1.1 Development of novel targets
- 8.1.2 Development of oral agents
8.2 Clinical trials design
- 8.2.1 Clinical endpoints for obesity
- 8.2.2 Inclusion and exclusion criteria for obesity
- 8.2.3 Trial duration

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview
9.2 Promising drugs in clinical development

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis

10.1 Overview
10.2 Competitive assessment

11 Current and Future Players

11.1 Overview
11.2 Deal-making trends

12 Market Outlook

12.1 Global markets
- 12.1.1 Forecast
- 12.1.2 Drivers and barriers - global issues
12.2 US
- 12.2.1 Forecast
- 12.2.2 Key events
- 12.2.3 Drivers and barriers
12.3 5EU
- 12.3.1 Forecast
- 12.3.2 Key events
- 12.3.3 Drivers and barriers
12.4 Japan
- 12.4.1 Forecast
- 12.4.2 Key events
- 12.4.3 Drivers and barriers

13 Appendix

13.1 Bibliography
13.2 Abbreviations
13.3 Methodology
- 13.3.1 Forecasting methodology
13.4 Primary Research - KOLs Interviewed for This Report
13.5 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey
13.6 About the Authors
- 13.6.1 Analyst
- 13.6.2 Therapy Area Director
- 13.6.3 Epidemiologist
- 13.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist
- 13.6.5 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiology

Product Code: GDHC310PIDR-7M

List of Tables

Table 1: Obesity: key metrics in the 7MM
Table 2: Classifications of obesity as outlined by the WHO
Table 3: Classification systems for obesity based on BMI cut-off points
Table 4: Risk factors and comorbidities for obesity
Table 5: Treatment guidelines for obesity
Table 6: Top 10 deals by value, 2018-24
Table 7: Obesity market - global drivers and barriers, 2021-31
Table 8: Key events impacting sales for obesity in the US, 2021-31
Table 9: Obesity market - drivers and barriers in the US, 2021-31
Table 10: Key events impacting sales for obesity in the 5EU, 2021-31
Table 11: Obesity market - drivers and barriers in the 5EU, 2021-31
Table 12: Key events impacting sales for obesity in Japan, 2021-31
Table 13: Obesity market - drivers and barriers in Japan, 2021-31
Table 14: High-prescribing physicians (non-KOLs) surveyed, by country

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global sales forecast by country for obesity in 2021 and 2031
Figure 2: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in obesity during the forecast period
Figure 3: Competitive assessment of the late-stage pipeline agents that GlobalData expects to be licensed for the treatment of obesity during the forecast period
Figure 3: Competitive assessment of the late-stage pipeline agents that GlobalData expects to be licensed for the treatment of obesity during the forecast period
Figure 4: Factors involved in the etiology of obesity
Figure 5: Pathophysiological manifestation of obesity
Figure 6: 7MM, total prevalence of overweight, men and women, ages >=5 years, 2011-31 (%)
Figure 7: 7MM, total prevalence of obesity, men and women, ages >=5 years, 2011-31 (%)
Figure 8: 7MM, diagnosed prevalence of overweight, men and women, ages >=5 years, 2011-31 (%)
Figure 9: 7MM, diagnosed prevalence of obesity, men and women, ages >=5 years, 2011-31 (%)
Figure 10: 7MM, sources used to forecast the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight and obesity
Figure 11: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of Class I, Class II, and Class III obesity
Figure 12: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast diagnosed incidence of bariatric surgery
Figure 13: 7MM, total prevalent cases of overweight, men and women, ages >=5 years, 2021 (N)
Figure 14: 7MM, total prevalent cases of obesity, men and women, ages >=5 years, 2021 (N)
Figure 15: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight, men and women, ages >=5 years, 2021 (N)
Figure 16: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight by age, men and women, 2021 (N)
Figure 17: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight by sex, ages >=5 years, 2021 (N)
Figure 18: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity, men and women, ages >=5 years, 2021 (N)
Figure 19: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by age, men and women, 2021 (N)
Figure 20: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by sex, ages >=5 years, 2021 (N)
Figure 21: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by BMI class, men and women, ages >=5 years, 2021 (N)
Figure 22: 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of bariatric surgery, men and women, all ages, 2021 (N)
Figure 23: BMI chart as a diagnostic technique for obesity
Figure 24: Treatment algorithm for obesity
Figure 25: Unmet needs and opportunities in obesity
Figure 26: Overview of the development pipeline in obesity as of January 2025
Figure 27: Key late-stage trials for the promising pipeline agents that GlobalData expects to be licensed for obesity in the 7MM during the forecast period
Figure 28: Competitive assessment of the recently approved agents and late-stage pipeline agents that GlobalData expects to be licensed for the treatment of obesity during the forecast period
Figure 29: Competitive assessment of the marketed and pipeline drugs benchmarked against the standard of care, Wegovy
Figure 30: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in obesity during the forecast period
Figure 31: Global (7MM) sales forecast by country for obesity in 2021 and 2031
Figure 32: Global (7MM) sales forecast by drug for obesity in 2021 and 2031
Figure 33: Sales forecast by drug for obesity in the US in 2021 and 2031
Figure 34: Sales forecast by drug for obesity in the 5EU in 2021 and 2031
Figure 35: Sales forecast by drug for obesity in Japan in 2021 and 2031

Obesity in Major Markets, Disease Management, Epidemiology, Pipeline Assessment, Unmet Needs and Drug Forecast to 2031

Description

Table of Contents

List of Tables

Scope

Reasons to Buy

Table of Contents

1 Obesity: Executive Summary

2 Introduction

3 Disease Overview

4 Epidemiology

5 Disease Management

6 Current Treatment Options

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

8 R&D Strategies

9 Pipeline Assessment

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis

11 Current and Future Players

12 Market Outlook

13 Appendix

List of Tables

List of Figures