Oceania Energy Transition - Sectors and Companies Driving Development

Oceania has the renewable potential to be a world leader in energy transition. However, to date, it has been one of the regions that have been slower to adopt renewable energy. Australia's 2024-25 federal budget gives belief that the region is trending in the right direction. New initiatives, such as Australia's National Interest Framework (2024) are vital in the transition to a net zero environment. Oceania's increase in renewable power capacity share over the past decade on the surface shows an effort to achieve net zero, however, fossil fuels still account for over half its power generation share showing that Oceania is still overly reliant on the latter. Technologies such as solar, wind, energy storage, EVs, SAFs, CCUS, and hydrogen will play a crucial role in allowing Oceania to reach its climate targets.

Oceania possesses vast renewable energy potential. So far, it has been slow to tap into its potential, but its governments have now started to adopt policies and initiatives to attract investment and highlight the importance of renewable energy for the future.

In 2024, renewables contributed to 59% of Oceania's overall power capacity. The share of renewable capacity will also increase significantly to 84% by 2035. The share of renewable power generation is expected to increase from 43% in 2024 to 79% in 2035.

In 2024, Oceania's energy storage capacity, all of which is Australian, was only 2% of the global share. 45% of Australia's energy storage capacity was made up of hydro-pumped storage highlighting the dominance of hydropower in the region. However, Australia is in a good position to increase its standing within the energy storage market with its vast domestic lithium supply.

Transport is one of the largest emitting sectors in Oceania. These emissions primarily come from petrol and diesel light vehicles. Despite numerous policies implemented to incentivise the use of EVs, GlobalData forecasts that BEVs will only account for 47% of all LV sales, hampered by uneven networks of EV charging points.

SAFs are experiencing an increase in both production and consumption, while production and consumption for renewable diesel and ethanol have either peaked, plateaued or will decline within the next decade. This is due to the vast proportion of feedstock produced being exported, a lack of government incentives and the rising electrification of light vehicles. The Australian government has noted the importance of SAFs in the transition to net zero, but it has yet to set out sufficient policies and incentives that will enable this.

Oceania has the smallest volume of CCS capacity of all regions with active capacity, significantly lagging behind Europe and North America. Despite Australia possessing geological advantages in comparison to the rest of the world, a lack of policy support and banning of carbon storage in certain basins has resulted in a poor CCUS outlook.

Despite having minimal active hydrogen capacity, Oceania looks to position itself as a leader in green hydrogen, with the third largest pipeline capacity and Western Australia as its hub. A high proportion of these projects are already in the post-feasibility stage. In a high-case scenario, with sufficient government support and private investment, the region could achieve a capacity of 5.1mtpa by 2030.

Key Highlights

• All 14 nations within Oceania have set 2050 as the target year to achieve net zero, in line with the Paris Agreement. Renewable power capacity share is set to reach 84% of the power capacity by 2035. Coal and Oil are slowly being decommissioned, with gas having the largest amount of upcoming capacity.
• Australia is still heavily reliant on coal as one of the world's largest exporters of it. Out of all renewable fuels, SAFs are predicted to witness the biggest growth both in supply and demand. Despite its geological advantages, Oceania's carbon capture capacity is the smallest among regions that currently have active and pipeline capacity. Oceania's hydrogen capacity is set to grow quickly in the coming years. Two projects are set to account for 40% of its upcoming hydrogen capacity, making its pipeline less secure.

Scope

• Oceania Climate targets and policies, Oceania CO2 emissions, Oceanian leaders in energy transition, renewable power capacity and generation, decommissioning of thermal power, energy storage capacity, policies and countries, electric vehicle sales growth, Oceanian upcoming renewable refineries, renewable fuels production and consumption, CCUS outlook and policies, Oceanian upcoming CC storage projects, hydrogen policies, Oceanian upcoming hydrogen policies, hydrogen capacity by stage and type.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify the market trends within the region and key players in hydrogen technologies.
• Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of the sector.
• Understand the region's different scenarios for 2030 based on the likeliness of the projects.
• Look at the demand in key application areas for the country.
• Facilitate the understanding on how and where the market is growing as it is rapidly scaling up to position as one of the main topics of the international and national agenda.