North America Energy Transition by Key Sectors and Companies Driving Development

North America's energy transition is continuing to gather pace, with a combination of technological development and favorable policy incentives driving substantial growth across renewables, hydrogen and CCUS sectors. Technologies such as electric vehicles and renewable fuels are also experiencing increasing adoption albeit at a slower rate.

Despite the current dominance of natural gas within North America's generation mix, a rapid build-out of solar PV and wind capacity will boost renewable generation so that it will contribute 55% of total generation by 2035. Despite inflationary pressures causing project slowdowns, offshore wind will also remain the fastest growing technology, experiencing a CAGR of 67% between 2023 and 2035.

A combination of higher gasoline prices, growing environmental consciousness and improved battery performance will increase the demand for electric vehicles within the US and Canada. As a result, electric vehicles will exceed 75% of the light vehicle market in Canada and the US by 2035. Meanwhile, Mexico's EV adoption will take place at a slower rate, with adoption rates of up to 18% by 2035 being forecast.

The US has long been a global leader in renewable fuel production, alone accounting for just over 50% of renewable diesel and SAF production capacity. The advance of renewable fuel technology and the shift to using other waste products will help propel further growth by increasing feedstock availability. SAF blending commitments within commercial aviation will also help to drive increasing demand for SAFs.

North America is also one of the world's most active regions for CCUS, accounting for 63% of global capacity in 2021. 207 projects of varying size are in the pipeline and will add over 240mtpa of capacity to the region. Almost 80% of this capacity will be based in the United States.

North America has also seen plenty of activity in the low-carbon hydrogen space, including the announcement of the world's two largest projects in Canada by Green Hydrogen International. The two projects will facilitate the further growth of the region's hydrogen market by establishing hydrogen export trade relationships and prompting regional electrolyzer production capacity to rapidly scale.

Key Highlights

• Coal-fired generation will experience a strong decline of -6.1% between 2023 and 2035. Meanwhile, gas will still hold a presence in the region's future generation mix, with an expected 27% generation share in 2035. Gas will experience a small decline of -1.3% in terms of absolute generation between 2023 and 2035, reflecting how countries in the region are expected to balance decarbonization and energy security concerns.
• Renewables are expected to hold a 55% generation share by 2035, with solar PV and onshore wind accounting for 24% and 17% respectively.
• Within North America, Canada currently has the highest proportion of renewable generation, largely due to its hydropower base, which accounted for 60% of overall generation in 2021. Hydropower will remain the largest source of renewable power, but solar, wind and biopower additions will boost renewable generation to 68% in 2035.
• CO2 storage, power and blue hydrogen remain the dominant facility sectors for CCUS, with these three industries accounting for 66% of CCUS capacity in 2030.
• Air Products and Chemicals Inc is expected to have 6 operational projects by 2030, with one already active and a further 5 in feasibility and construction phases that will come online from 2024 onwards. The company will be the second biggest contributor to low-carbon hydrogen capacity by the end of the decade, accounting for 770ktpa.

Scope

Regional Energy Transition in North America

Policies the supporting energy transition

Power renewable capacity and generation by 2035 and thermal decommissioning capacity

Electric vehicles market and growth

Key renewable refinery projects in North America

CCS capacity and main CCS developments

Main hydrogen developments and hydrogen capacity in North America

Reasons to Buy

Identify the last trends, policies and leaders in energy transition technologies.

Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of each of the sectors.

Understand the potential market growth and policy support for renewable power, hydrogen, renewable refineries, CCS, EVs.

Facilitate the understanding of where the market is growing as the energy transition remains the foremost topic of the international agenda.