Africa Energy Transition - Sectors and Companies Driving Development

Africa's power market still relies on a combination of thermal power and large-scale hydropower projects to cater to most of its demand. However, the region's energy transition is gaining pace as countries increasingly capitalize on the falling cost of producing renewable energy. Meanwhile, increasing policy support is causing hydrogen, CCUS and electric vehicles to gain traction.

Africa's power market still relies on a combination of thermal power and large-scale hydropower projects to cater to most of its demand. However, the region's energy transition is gaining pace as countries increasingly capitalize on the falling cost of producing renewable energy and the region's rich renewable resources. Onshore wind and solar PV are expected to experience a strong growth in capacity in the run up to 2035, experiencing a CAGR of 8% and 8.3%, respectively. The active and pipeline capacity of Africa's hydrogen market is also expected to exceed 21 mtpa by 2030. However, electric vehicles will continue to struggle for traction within Africa's light vehicle market, with low rates of ownership and the tendency to import used internal combustion engine vehicles compounding issues of affordability and reliable charging infrastructure for many consumers. Meanwhile, there has been a significant uptick in activity related to carbon capture, storage and utilization technology, with 6 projects scheduled to come online before 2030, the majority of which will be commercial projects.

Key Highlights

• Many countries in Africa are working to bring grid access to all segments of the population, with transmission investment reaching $7.2 billion for the region in 2023. This, coupled with a fast-growing population, means that total generation is expected to increase by 47% between 2023-2035.
• Morocco, South Africa and Tanzania will experience some of the strongest growth in renewable generation between 2022 and 2035, chiefly due to the build out of large scale solar PV and wind projects.
• 28 countries in Africa now have emissions standards for used vehicles. It is likely that the environmental credential of used vehicles will come under closer scrutiny in years to come.
• Despite having no active capacity, the region has 3.8 mtpa of pipeline CCUS capacity. However, the region will for now remain a minority player in the global CCUS market, with current global active CCUS capacity standing at 51 mtpa.
• This growth trend will also be reflected in Africa's hydrogen market, where active and pipeline capacity is forecast to exceed 21 mtpa in 2030, which represents a CAGR of 139% across the same period.

Scope

Regional Energy Transition in Africa

Policies supporting energy transition

Power renewable capacity and generation by 2035 and thermal decommissioning capacity

Electric vehicles market and growth

Active and upcoming CCUS projects

Hydrogen market analysis

Reasons to Buy

Identify the last trends, policies and leaders in energy transition technologies.

Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of each of the sectors.

Understand the potential market growth and policy support for renewable power, hydrogen, renewable refineries, CCS, EVs.

Facilitate the understanding on where the market is growing as energy transition is positioned as one of the main topics of the international agenda.