Thriving Through Economic, Geopolitical, and Business Risks and Transformation

Strategic Diversification, Digital Transformation, and Scenario Planning are Key to Resilience Building and Risk Mitigation

Companies need to increasingly plan for business scenarios tied to fast-changing macroeconomic dynamics and risk conditions. Staying ahead of the curve requires extensive scenario planning and nimble responses to evolving risk conditions, such as economic, geopolitical, technological, climate change, and labor and human capital risks.

This thought leadership analysis evaluates the top risks CEOs and their leadership teams should prepare for in 2024-25, with economic and geopolitical risks dominating the risk landscape. In terms of economic risks, further cross-border geopolitical flare-ups could fuel inflationary pressures, derailing central bank interest rate cut plans. On the trade front, the United States has raised tariffs against China. The looming risk of an intensifying US-China trade war could disrupt trade flows and drive up costs for end consumers. Global supply chains and semiconductor production could come under pressure in case of geopolitical conflicts involving Taiwan or South Korea, major semiconductor producers. On the technological front, generative AI has become a go-to technology for efficiency and output maximization. Companies also need to secure themselves against generative AI-linked breaches.

The analysis qualitatively and quantitatively evaluates 23 global risks based on the parameters of global economic impact, likelihood, and impact timelines, with risk scores generated for the global risk universe. The findings of this exercise have been encapsulated in a global risk heatmap, enabling companies to immediately identify high risks to product lines and markets. The analysis also outlines pre-risk mitigation and post-risk responsiveness measures for the top 5 global risks from 2024-25. Companies that effectively plan for these risks and transformations are poised to gain a competitive edge during disruptive times.

Key Issues Addressed

• What is the risk universe for 2024-25 and what are the factors driving these risks?
• Which are the top 5 risks businesses need to prepare for to thrive?
• How does the economic impact of delayed rate cuts compare to a US-China trade war escalation?
• What is the risk score of a potential China invasion of Taiwan against that of a global recession?
• Does the risk score of technological risks outperform that of climate change risks?
• How should businesses navigate emerging global risks?
• What risk mitigation strategies should businesses deploy to counter economic risks?
• What growth opportunities should businesses capitalize on as the risk landscape evolves?