Growth Opportunities in Biologics Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations, 2024-2029

Risk-sharing Business Models for Next-generation Biologics Will Drive Bio-CDMO Growth and Spur Future Potential

By 2023, biologics constituted 44% of the therapeutic pipeline, with antibodies and recombinant proteins as leading categories. Nevertheless, advancements in these fields decelerated, with most of the expansion happening in heterologous cell treatments, synthetic nucleic acids, and viruses. The global biologics pipeline will shift toward more complex treatment modalities, including cell and gene therapy (CGT), nucleic acid therapy, ADC, and bispecific antibodies. Biopharmaceutical companies that focus on these treatments will strive for reduced durations for clinical development and a greater focus on cost-effectively producing drugs with lower costs of goods sold (COGS). Biologics contract development and manufacturing organizations (Bio-CDMOs) are actively framing manufacturing and supply chain strategies, with a specific emphasis on partnering with service providers to optimize the production process.

The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the BIOSECURE Act have the potential to slow down drug innovation and the demand for CDMO services, leading to radical transformations in global outsourcing dynamics and CDMO strategies. Venture capitalists are assisting their pharmaceutical portfolios by internally restructuring and extending their cash reserves. CDMOs have experienced a consistent decrease in demand, especially for the initial phases of development. However, in late 2023 and 2024, there was a rise in M&A transactions, favorable conditions for biotech financing and valuation, and a stabilization of inflation and interest rates. Demand will resurge, particularly from emerging biopharma and early-stage development, by 2024.

This Frost & Sullivan analysis provides detailed revenue forecasts for the global market of bio-CDMOs. The forecasts are categorized by market and segment, offering valuable insights into the industry. The analysis focuses on highlighting the potential growth opportunities for participants by considering trends, business models, and innovative strategies. The market segments cover various aspects, such as product type, cell expression type, modality, and geographic region. Considering the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the current global geopolitical issues, demand for outsourcing has decelerated. CDMOs are experiencing a decline in demand, particularly from small and emerging biopharmaceutical companies and those in the early stages of development. This analysis provides a comprehensive examination of future trends, covering the period between 2024 and 2029. It includes insights on capacity expansions, mergers, acquisitions, and the expansion of service offerings. The analysis also investigates the impact of strategic imperatives, growth drivers, restraints, revenue share estimates, and opportunities for bio-CDMOs.