Global Green Ammonia Market - 2024-2031

Overview

The global green ammonia market size was worth US$ 0.2 billion in 2023 and is estimated to reach US$ 5.9 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 52.95% during the forecast period (2024-2031).

Ammonia is a poisonous gas that is commonly employed in agricultural fertilizer production. Green ammonia production refers to ammonia production that is 100% renewable and carbon-free. Using hydrogen from water electrolysis and nitrogen extracted from the air is one method of green ammonia production. It is then put into the Haber process, wholly powered by renewable energy. The process produces ammonia, NH3, by combining hydrogen and nitrogen at high temperatures and pressures.

On the other hand, ammonia production is currently not a "green" process. It's usually manufactured from methane, water and air, with the hydrogen produced using steam methane reforming (SMR) and the Haber process. The SMR method produces around 90% of the carbon dioxide produced. This process uses a lot of energy and emits about 1.8 percent of the world's carbon dioxide.

Market Dynamics

The need for renewable energy storage in the form of hydrogen has risen dramatically due to the growing adoption of renewable energy-producing systems worldwide. As a result, several green ammonia initiatives have been started because it is the best hydrogen ion vector. However, the expensive capital expenditure on ammonia facilities may operate as a stumbling block to market expansion.

Long-term demand for renewable energy

In terms of capacity addition, renewable energy generation exceeds fossil fuel power generation. Global renewable capacity had reached 2.79 terawatts (TW) by 2020, up 10.3 percent from the previous year. As per the International Renewable Energy Agency, solar and wind are high-potential renewable energy sources and are expected to dominate the renewable energy sector in the future years.

Solar and wind energy have grown faster than other renewable energy sources, rising investment and lower power generation costs. As a result, rising renewable energy generation and corresponding storage requirements will propel the green ammonia industry forward.

Green ammonia as a maritime fuel

The shipping industry is currently responsible for 3% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, owing to the high consumption of diesel and high sulfur fuel for ships. Heavy fuel oil is ships' most common bunker oil, obtained as a leftover from crude oil distillation. When oil with high sulfur content is burned in a ship engine, toxic SOx is released into the sky.

The marine industry, on the other hand, is undergoing a transition. The maritime industry is under pressure to reduce emissions by switching to cleaner energy sources. The sulfur limit in transportation oil used on board ships operating outside designated emission control areas has been cut to 0.5 percent m/m under the International Maritime Organization (IMO) 2020 standards (mass by mass). It will shift toward higher-quality marine fuels, opening up prospects in the green ammonia industry.

High capital investment

The high capital-intensive nature of green ammonia plants is now the most significant impediment to the market's expansion. The cost of green ammonia plants is 1.5 times that of natural gas-based ammonia plants. For about 75% of the plant's operating costs, natural gas or coal is the major operating cost in ammonia manufacturing. General ammonia manufacturers will not be able to move from traditional ammonia production to green ammonia production unless the cost of renewable energy and electrolyzers falls further, hampering market expansion.

COVID-19 Impact Analysis

In late March 2020, as COVID-19 began closing non-essential enterprises and borders, numerous packaging companies created industry surveys to provide meaningful measures regarding the impact of COVID-19 on chemical makers, material suppliers and machinery manufacturers.

Industries deemed critical were operating at capacity levels of up to 95%. As companies adopt sustainability measures, the demand for green ammonia in transportation, power generation and industrial feedstock will likely rise at a significantly high rate as the impacts of COVID-19 crisis fade away.

Segment Analysis

The green ammonia market is segmented by end-users as transportation, power generation and industrial feedstock.

Rising use of ammonia in power generation

The rising need for energy in many end-use sectors is largely responsible for this segment's rise. Renewable energy can be stored and reused for power generation at consumption sites with green ammonia production. It will improve the efficiency and long-term viability of renewable energy generation. Combined with natural gas or hydrogen, ammonia can also be burned directly in gas turbines. If ammonia is imported as a hydrogen carrier, burning it directly could prevent the need for ammonia cracking (which is required to convert it back to hydrogen), eliminating an energy-intensive step in the process.

Ammonia also takes up less space in the storage tank than hydrogen. Ammonia is also less reactive than hydrogen, burning at a lower temperature with a slower flame and a limited flammability range. While ammonia fire presents a flame stability difficulty, it is less than hydrogen, with NOx abatement remaining the primary concern. However, as previously stated, NOx abatement using well-proven selective catalytic reduction systems is already being employed successfully in several nations' stationary NOx emitters, such as power plants.

Several businesses are working on engines and turbines that use ammonia as fuel. Mitsubishi, for example, is working on a gas turbine that can run on ammonia as a fuel. Thermal cracking of ammonia produces hydrogen, nitrogen and trace amounts of ammonia, utilized as a fuel in gas turbines.

Geographical Share

The presence of green hydrogen projects in Europe

In the global market, Europe is expected to have a large share. The existence of green hydrogen projects around the region is primarily driving the region's growth. The green ammonia market in the region is expected to increase due to a rising number of fuel cell projects and government initiatives to deploy fuel cells in the residential and commercial sectors.

Furthermore, the rapid adoption of electric vehicles in this region is likely to raise the market for fuel cells, which would boost the market for green ammonia. A crucial aspect driving the region's green ammonia market is the increased preference for sustainable energy sources for power generation and transportation fuel.

Furthermore, significant market participants across the region and their contributions to creating new production plants are a major contributor to the region's high market share. For example, Haldor Topsoe declared in March 2021 that it would produce green ammonia for naval fuel in Germany. Aquamarine Investment Partners, a private capital manager, is leading the project. They signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Haldor Topsoe, a Danish company working on multiple initiatives to produce green hydrogen, ammonia, eMethanol and green fuels.

Russia-Ukraine War Impact:

Fertilizer prices had already reached historic highs at the time of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. They have been increasing since late 2020 due to a variety of circumstances. Fertilizer demand, which fell during the COVID 19 lockdowns, regained in late 2020/2021 as restrictions were released and crop prices increased. On the supply side, rising natural gas and coal costs-key feedstocks and energy sources in fertilizer manufacturing-along with some decreases in production capacity, pushed prices higher.

The outbreak of war on February 24, 2022, caused prices to skyrocket. The conflict itself, additional or expanded economic sanctions on Russia and Belarus, and disruptions in Black Sea trade routes all contributed to increased uncertainty over fertilizer exports from the two countries. Russia and Belarus are significant producers of all three key fertilizer nutrients. In 2020, Russia accounted for 14% of global urea commerce and 11% of global phosphate trade, with Russia and Belarus accounting for 41% of global potash trade combined. The fact that a limited number of nations manufacture a substantial proportion of internationally sold fertilizers renders the industry vulnerable to trade shocks.

Countries that rely significantly on fertilizer imports from Russia and Belarus feared an immediate shortage, and many scrambled to find other sources in a very tight global market. However, with around three-quarters of all countries importing at least half of their fertilizer usage, trade shocks caused by the conflict echoed over the world.

By Technology

Alkaline Water Electrolysis (AWE)

Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM)

Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE)

By End-user

Transportation

Power Generation

Industrial Feedstock

By Region

North America

U.S.

Canada

Mexico

Europe

Germany

UK

France

Italy

Russia

Rest of Europe

South America

Brazil

Argentina

Rest of South America

Asia-Pacific

China

India

Japan

Australia

Rest of Asia-Pacific

Middle East and Africa

Recent Developments

In May 2024, Cepsa has picked thyssenkrupp nucera as the preferred supplier for a 300-megawatt electrolyzer for its new green hydrogen plant in Spain, set to open. The deal was revealed at the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam. The electrolyzer will play an important role in producing green hydrogen, helping Cepsa's efforts to create sustainable energy solutions.

In October 2023, DAI Infrastruktur partnered with Egyptian technology behemoth Siemens Energy to create a green ammonia project in East Port Said, Egypt. DAI's Ra project is expected to begin production of green ammonia in 2028, with a total capacity of 2 million tons per year (mtpa). Siemens will provide electrolysers, auxiliary plant systems, and other equipment for the "hydrogen island" part of Project Ra. During the project development phase, both firms will work together to provide engineering services.

In September 2023, OPAL Fuels entered into a joint venture with South Jersey Industries, an energy infrastructure holding firm, to develop, build, own, and operate RNG facilities.

In August 2022, Uniper SE signed a Memorandum of Understanding with EverWind Fuels to purchase green ammonia from EverWind's first manufacturing facility in Nova Scotia. EverWind and Uniper seek to reach a definitive offtake deal for 500,000 tonnes of green ammonia annually.

Green Ammonia Market Competitive Landscape

Major global Green Ammonia market companies include ThyssenKrupp, Siemens Energy, Man Energy Solutions, Nel Hydrogen, Green Hydrogen Systems, ITM Power, Mcphy Energy, Hydrogenics, Star Fire Energy and AquaHydrex.

Why Purchase the Report?

Visualize the composition of the green ammonia market segmentation by technology, end-user and region, highlighting the critical commercial assets and players.

Identify commercial opportunities in the green ammonia market by analyzing trends and co-development deals.

Excel data sheet with thousands of green ammonia market-level 4/5 segmentation points.

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Product mapping in excel for the key product of all major market players

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Target Audience 2024

Green Ammonia Service Providers/ Buyers

Industry Investors/Investment Bankers

Education & Research Institutes

Emerging Companies

Green Ammonia Manufacturers