Obesity - Market Insight, Epidemiology, and Market Forecast - 2034

Key Highlights:

• Obesity is recognized as a chronic disease, which is a complex, multifactorial phenotype, affecting, along with overweight, primarily associated with excess adiposity, or body fatness which can manifest metabolically and not just with respect to the size of the body.
• In 2023, the United States accounted for the largest market size (more than USD 2,000 Million) of obesity, in comparison to EU4 (Germany, Spain, Italy, France), the United Kingdom, and Japan.
• The US FDA has approved XENICAL (orlistat), QSYMIA (phentermine-topiramate), CONTRAVE (naltrexone-bupropion), SAXENDA (liraglutide), WEGOVY (semaglutide), and IMCIVREE (setmelanotide)-for long-term use in overweight and obesity treatment.
• Recently, in November 2023, the US FDA approved Eli Lilly and Company's ZEPBOUND (tirzepatide) injection, for the treatment of obesity that activates both glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) hormone receptors.
• Among the all therapies, WEGOVY (Simaglutide) and ZEPBOUND (tirzepatide) are estimated to generate the highest revenue in the US.
• In December 2023, Pfizer announced topline data from the Phase IIb clinical trial (NCT04707313) investigating its oral glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) candidate, danuglipron (PF-06882961), in adults with obesity and without Type 2 diabetes. The study met its primary endpoint demonstrating statistically significant change in body weight from baseline.
• In recent years, there has been a growing focus on the development of novel therapies for the treatment of obesity, including drug combinations such as SAXENDA (liraglutide), XENICAL (orlistat), WEGOVY (simaglutide), QYSMIA (phentermine-topiramate), and others.
• The dynamics of the weight management in obese and overweight population is anticipated to change as companies across the globe are thoroughly working towards the development of new drug therapies for the management of this issue. Key players, such as Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelhium, and others are involved in developing novel therapies for, overweight and obesity which will eventually help in the weight management.
• According to DelveInsight's estimates, the total number of prevalent cases of obesity among adults in the United States was approximately 60% of the cases in the 7MM in 2023.
• Obesity prevalence for the United States has shown an increasing trend in adult population. As per DelveInsight's estimates, the total prevalent cases of obesity in the United States was highest for adults (>19 years) and for children (5-19 years), in 2023. These cases are anticipated to increase in both adults and children at moderate CAGR.

DelveInsight's "Obesity - Market Insights, Epidemiology and Market Forecast - 2034" report delivers an in-depth understanding of obesity, historical and forecasted epidemiology as well as the obesity market trends in the United States, EU4 (Germany, Spain, Italy, and France) and the United Kingdom, and Japan.

Obesity market report provides real-world prescription pattern analysis, emerging drugs, market share of individual therapies, and historical and forecasted 7MM obesity market size from 2020 to 2034. The report also covers current obesity treatment practices/algorithms and unmet medical needs to curate the best opportunities and assess the market's underlying potential.

Geography Covered:

• The United States
• EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom
• Japan

Obesity Understanding and Treatment Algorithm

Obesity Overview, Country-Specific Treatment Guidelines and Diagnosis

Obesity results from an interaction between an individual's genetic predisposition to weight gain and environmental influences. The severe forms and majority of the early-onset monogenic forms of obesity have aroused from gene mutations in the leptin-melanocortin axis, particularly LEPR encoding for the leptin receptor, POMC (pro-opiomelanocortin), MC4R (melanocortin-4 receptor), NTRK2 (tropomyosin receptor kinase B receptor), and SIM1 (single-minded 1 transcription factor). The most visible sign of obesity can be derived from the magnitude of excess adipose tissue fat, which is measured by taking anthropometric measurements. Most common symptoms include stretch marks, High BP, BMI greater than 30 kg/m 2.

Early diagnosis and intervention is the most successful strategy for obesity treatment. Diagnosis of obesity involves proper evaluation of the weight status, which considers many factors and uses various tools and diagnostic tests, including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference measurement, physical exams, and lab tests to check for comorbidities.

The obesity report provides an overview of obesity pathophysiology, diagnostic approaches, and detailed treatment algorithm along with a real-world scenario of a patient's journey beginning from the first symptom, the time taken for diagnosis to the entire treatment process.

Obesity Treatment

The management of obesity and its associated comorbidities has blown over time. The current treatment of obesity aims to reduce body weight and body fat percentage to prevent the onset of obesity-related health problems and improve the overall health condition of the patient. In the last century, the pharmacological management of obesity has included amphetamines, thyroid hormones, dinitrophenol and various drug combinations (rainbow pills) that were withdrawn shortly after regulatory approval due to serious adverse effect.

Approved treatments for obesity - particularly pharmacotherapy - mostly remain underutilized. The reasons underlying the low uptake of medical therapy for obesity are complex, ranging from practical issues of insurance coverage and cost to concerns about safety and efficacy, as well as continued disease-related stigma, even among providers. The weight-loss medications that are approved by the US FDA include, CONTRAVE (naltrexone-bupropion), SAXENDA (liraglutide), XENICAL (orlistat), QSYMIA (phentermine-topiramate), WEGOVY (semaglutide), IMCIVREE (setmelanotide), and others.

Obesity Epidemiology

The obesity epidemiology chapter in the report provides historical as well as forecasted in the 7MM covering the United States, EU4 countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the United Kingdom, and Japan from 2024 to 2034. The obesity epidemiology is segmented with detailed insights into Total Prevalent Cases of Obesity, Total Obesity Patients Seeking Help, and Total Treated Cases of Obesity.

• As per DelveInsight's estimates, the United States accounted for the highest number of total prevalent cases among the 7 MM in 2023.
• DelveInsight's consultant estimates that adult patients constituted the maximum number of cases of obesity patients seeking help in 2023.
• According to the findings, treatment rate for children was found to be less than that of adults across countries.
• Among EU4 and the UK, the highest number of treated cases of obesity in adults was observed in the United Kingdom in 2023, which is followed by Germany.

Obesity Drug Chapters

The drug chapter segment of the obesity report encloses a detailed analysis of obesity marketed drugs and late-stage (Phase III and Phase II) pipeline drugs. It also deep dives into the obesity pivotal clinical trial details, recent and expected market approvals, patent details, the latest news, and recent deals and collaborations.

Marketed Drugs

IMCIVREE (setmelanotide): Rhythm Pharmaceuticals

Imcivree is a melanocortin 4 (MC4) receptor agonist indicated for chronic weight management in adult and pediatric patients 6 years of age and older with obesity. In November 2020, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals announced the US FDA approval of Imcivree as the first-ever therapy for chronic weight management in patients with obesity due to POMC, PCSK1, or LEPR deficiency. Earlier, in May 2017, FDA expanded the Breakthrough Therapy Designation to disorders involving genetic defects upstream of the melanocortin-4 receptor in the leptin-melanocortin pathway.

ZEPBOUND (tirzepatide): Eli Lilly and Company

Tirzepatide is a once-weekly glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptor and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist that integrates the actions of both incretins into a single novel molecule. In November 2023, the US FDA approved Eli Lilly and Company's ZEPBOUND (tirzepatide) injection, the first obesity treatment of its kind that activates both GIP and GLP-1 hormone receptors. ZEPBOUND is indicated for adults with obesity (with a BMI of 30 kg/m2 or greater), or those who are overweight (with a BMI of 27 kg/m2 or greater) and also have weight-related medical problems such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, Type II diabetes mellitus, obstructive sleep apnea or cardiovascular disease, to lose weight and keep it off.

Emerging Drugs

Semaglutide oral: Novo Nordisk

Oral semaglutide is approved as an adjunct to diet and exercise to improve glycaemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes in the US, EU and Japan under the trade name, RYBELSUS. It is an oral GLP-1 RA, an analogue of the naturally occurring hormone GLP-1. Currently, the company is developing the candidate for obesity. The candidate is being evaluated in various Phase III trials (OASIS 1, OASIS 2, OASIS 3 and OASIS 4) to assess the safety and efficacy of the drug in subjects with overweight or obesity.

In May 2023, Novo Nordisk reported positive result from one of the Phase III trials, i.e. OASIS 1, which met primary endpoint.

Survodutide (BI 456906): Boehringer Ingelhium

Survodutide (BI 456906) is a GCGR/GLP1 dual agonist being developed by Boehringer Ingelhium. GLP1 agonism is expected to lower body weight and provide glucose control. Both receptors are critical to controlling metabolic functions. The compound leverages the known effects of the natural gut hormone oxyntomodulin, which has been shown to decrease food intake and increase energy expenditure in humans as well as the established effects of GLP1 agonism on both glucose control and body weight. The dual agonist BI 456906 has potential as a new, once-weekly treatment that may offer therapeutically relevant benefits compared to currently available treatments. In Augustt 2023, Boehringer Ingelheim announced its plans to advance survodutide into three registrational Phase III studies for people living with overweight or obesity. Currently, it is being evaluated under Phase III development.

Obesity Market Outlook

• Key players, such as Novo Nordisk, Boehringer Ingelhium, and others are evaluating their lead candidates in different stages of clinical development, respectively. They aim to investigate their products for the treatment of obesity.
• The United States represents approximately 80% of the market size for obesity, surpassing the combined market size of Germany, Spain, Italy, France (referred to as EU4), the United Kingdom, and Japan.
• By 2034, WEGOVY (Simaglutide) and ZEPBOUND (tirzepatide) are anticipated to achieve the prominent market share in the 7 major markets.
• Germany accounts for the second highest market size in the 7MM during the forecast period 2024-2034.
• The market size is expected to grow significantly during the forecast period owing to launch of novel therapies and increasing prevalence of obesity.

Obesity Drugs Uptake

This section focuses on the uptake rate of potential drugs expected to be launched in the market during 2024-2034, which depends on the competitive landscape, safety, and efficacy data along with order of entry. It is important to understand that the key players evaluating their novel therapies in the pivotal and confirmatory trials should remain vigilant when selecting appropriate comparators to stand the greatest chance of a positive opinion from regulatory bodies, leading to approval, smooth launch, and rapid uptake.

Obesity Activities

The report provides insights into different therapeutic candidates in Phase III and Phase II stages. It also analyzes key players involved in developing targeted therapeutics.

Pipeline Development Activities

The report covers information on collaborations, acquisitions and mergers, licensing, and patent details for obesity emerging therapies.

KOL Views

To keep up with the real-world scenario in current and emerging market trends, we take opinions from Key Industry leaders working in the domain through primary research to fill the data gaps and validate our secondary research. Industry Experts were contacted for insights on the evolving treatment landscape, patient reliance on conventional therapies, patient therapy switching acceptability, and drug uptake along with challenges related to accessibility.

DelveInsight's analysts connected with 10+ KOLs to gather insights; however, interviews were conducted with 20+ KOLs in the 7MM. Centers such as Harvard Medical School, World Obesity Federation, Showa University, etc., were contacted. Their opinion helps understand and validate current and emerging treatment patterns of obesity. This will support the clients in potential upcoming novel treatments by identifying the overall scenario of the market and the unmet needs.

Qualitative Analysis

We perform Qualitative and market Intelligence analysis using various approaches, such as SWOT analysis and Conjoint Analysis. In the SWOT analysis, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in terms of gaps in disease diagnosis, patient awareness, physician acceptability, competitive landscape, cost-effectiveness, and geographical accessibility of therapies are provided.

Conjoint Analysis analyzes multiple approved and emerging therapies based on relevant attributes such as safety, efficacy, frequency of administration, route of administration, and order of entry. Scoring is given based on these parameters to analyze the effectiveness of therapy. In efficacy, the trial's primary and secondary outcome measures are evaluated.

Further, the therapies' safety is evaluated wherein the acceptability, tolerability, and adverse events are majorly observed, and it sets a clear understanding of the side effects posed by the drug in the trials. In addition, the scoring is also based on the probability of success, and the addressable patient pool for each therapy. According to these parameters, the final weightage score and the ranking of the emerging therapies are decided.

Market Access and Reimbursement

Reimbursement of rare disease therapies can be limited due to lack of supporting policies and funding, challenges of high prices, lack of specific approaches to evaluating rare disease drugs given limited evidence, and payers' concerns about budget impact. The high cost of rare disease drugs usually has a limited effect on the budget due to the small number of eligible patients being prescribed the drug. The US FDA has approved several rare disease therapies in recent years. From a patient perspective, health insurance and payer coverage guidelines surrounding rare disease treatments restrict broad access to these treatments, leaving only a small number of patients who can bypass insurance and pay for products independently.

The report further provides detailed insights on the country-wise accessibility and reimbursement scenarios, cost-effectiveness scenario of currently used therapies, programs making accessibility easier and out-of-pocket costs more affordable, insights on patients insured under federal or state government prescription drug programs, etc.

Scope of the Report:

• The report covers a segment of key events, an executive summary, descriptive overview of obesity, explaining its causes, signs and symptoms, pathogenesis, and currently available therapies.
• Comprehensive insight has been provided into the epidemiology segments and forecasts, the future growth potential of diagnosis rate, and disease progression along with country specific treatment guidelines.
• Additionally, an all-inclusive account of both the current and emerging therapies, along with the elaborative profiles of late-stage and prominent therapies, will have an impact on the current treatment landscape.
• A detailed review of the obesity market, historical and forecasted market size, market share by therapies, detailed assumptions, and rationale behind our approach is included in the report, covering the 7MM drug outreach.
• The report provides an edge while developing business strategies, by understanding trends, through SWOT analysis and expert insights/KOL views, patient journey, and treatment preferences that help in shaping and driving the 7MM obesity market.

Obesity Report Insights

• Patient Population
• Therapeutic Approaches
• Obesity Pipeline Analysis
• Obesity Market Size and Trends
• Existing and Future Market Opportunity

Obesity Report Key Strengths

• Eleven-year Forecast
• 7MM Coverage
• Obesity Epidemiology Segmentation
• Inclusion of Country Specific Treatment Guidelines
• KOL's Feedback On Approved and Emerging Therapies
• Key Cross Competition
• Conjoint Analysis
• Drugs Uptake and Key Market Forecast Assumptions

Obesity Report Assessment

• Current Treatment Practices
• Unmet Needs
• Pipeline Product Profiles
• Market Attractiveness
• Qualitative Analysis (SWOT and Conjoint Analysis)

FAQs:

• What is the growth rate of the 7MM obesity treatment market?
• What was the obesity total market size, the market size by therapies, market share (%) distribution in 2020, and what would it look like in 2034? What are the contributing factors/key catalysts for this growth?
• Is there any unexplored patient setting that can open the window for growth in the future?
• What are the pricing variations among different geographies for approved and off-label therapies?
• How would the market drivers, barriers, and future opportunities affect the market dynamics and subsequent analysis of the associated trends?
• What are the current and emerging options for the treatment of obesity?
• How many companies are developing therapies for the treatment of obesity?
• What are the recent novel therapies, targets, mechanisms of action, and technologies developed to overcome the limitations of existing therapies?
• Patient/physician acceptability in terms of preferred treatment options as per real-world scenarios?
• What are the country-specific accessibility issues of expensive, recently approved therapies?

Reasons to buy:

• The report will help in developing business strategies by understanding the latest trends and changing treatment dynamics driving the obesity market.
• Insights on patient burden/disease prevalence, evolution in diagnosis, and factors contributing to the change in the epidemiology of the disease during the forecast years
• Understand the existing market opportunities in varying geographies and the growth potential over the coming years.
• Distribution of historical and current patient share based on real-world prescription data along with reported sales of approved products in the US, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the United Kingdom, and Japan.
• Identifying strong upcoming players in the market will help devise strategies to help get ahead of competitors.
• Detailed analysis and ranking of class-wise potential current and emerging therapies under the conjoint analysis section to provide visibility around leading classes.
• Highlights of access and reimbursement policies of approved therapies, barriers to accessibility of expensive off-label therapies, and patient assistance programs.
• To understand Key Opinion Leaders' perspectives around the accessibility, acceptability, and compliance-related challenges of existing treatment to overcome barriers in the future.
• Detailed insights on the unmet needs of the existing market so that the upcoming players can strengthen their development and launch strategy.