PUBLISHER: BIS Research | PRODUCT CODE: 1250686
PUBLISHER: BIS Research | PRODUCT CODE: 1250686
BIS Research Study Highlights Aviation Emissions Control - Impact and Opportunities, 2023
Aviation Emissions Control Overview
The global emissions from commercial aviation amounted to 865.72 MMT of CO2 in 2021, and it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.03% and reach 1,203.42 MMT of CO2 by 2032. The medium-haul and short-haul flight segments are expected to be the highest contributors owing to their increasing demand and newer airport hubs being established for domestic and regional air travel. The ecosystem of aviation emissions control comprises aircraft manufacturers, subsystem manufacturers, and airline operators.
Market Lifecycle Stage
Trafditionally, fleet renewals to more fuel-efficient aircraft and transition to more efficient narrowbody aircraft have been key in the industry's strategy toward emissions control and emissions intensity reduction. However, as the effort of all industries to decarbonize and reduce emissions is becoming a priority, revolutionary solutions such as electric and hydrogen propulsion and low-emissions jet fuels and their development programs are being accelerated by both private participants and government organizations. In the most likely scenario of emissions, the adoption of SAF and fleet renewals is key to the incremental reduction in aviation emissions. However, a high reduction in emissions can be achieved by bringing the technology readiness of green aviation to market for at least short-haul flight demands with eventual growth to include medium-haul flight segments.
Impact
Market Segmentation:
Segmentation 1: Emissions Analysis by Fleet-Flight
Based on Fleet-Flight, the global aviation emissions from commercial flights will be the highest from narrowbody medium-haul flight operations, followed closely by widebody long-haul emissions. Both segments are important for global connectivity and contribute significantly to the aviation industry's revenue from commercial flights. Aircraft and engine manufacturers are investing in research and development of green propulsion technologies, such as hydrogen and electric propulsion, for entry into the market in the next decade to keep commercial flights sustainable in the future.
Segmentation 2: Emissions Analysis by Scenario
Emissions from the no emissions control scenario (Scenario 1) are the highest and are based on the current emissions control technologies and measures projected on the flight forecasts. Scenario 2 is optimistic, with wide adoption of SAF frequent fleet renewals bringing down the emissions significantly by 2042. Emissions from the ideal scenario (Scenario 3) are the lowest and are heavily focused on maturation as well as the adoption of electric and hydrogen propulsion for high-volume flight operations. The emissions reduction possible in this scenario is the highest, with the 2042 emissions reducing to below 2022 levels, even with monotonically increasing flight demands in all segments. The most likely scenario (Scenario 4) factors in realistic levels of adoption of SAF and late emergence and maturation of technologies. The industry is expected to prioritize demand and high frequency heavily, given the contraction in volume during COVID and the slow recovery. Emissions are above those for scenario 2 (optimistic scenario) and below that for no emissions control scenario.
Segmentation 3: Flight Demand Analysis by Fleet-Flight
Based on Fleet-Flight, demand for medium and short-haul flights is expected to increase significantly. Newer routes, as well as higher frequencies on dense international and domestic routes, are expected as the global aviation industry recovers from the COVID-induced contraction in demand. The short-haul international flight segments are seen to grow significantly, with neighboring countries strengthening their connectivity and increasing the number of airports domestically. Asia-Pacific short-haul routes to and from nations such as India, China, and Singapore are expected to contribute significantly to the growth in flight demands from this segment.
Segmentation 4: e-VTOL Aircraft Production by Range
Based on Range, manufacturers of eVTOL of ranges greater than 500 Km will have the highest production annually. Since eVTOL is very low emissions, their adoption in critical segments of air transport, such as short-haul travel, will improve their uptake significantly while reducing the subsequent emissions from all other modes of transport. The 201-500 Km range of eVTOL will witness high demand as well for low passenger capacity air travel long-distance intracity operations. The solution can eventually be scaled for at least low-capacity short-haul international flights with scheduled operations from the current airport infrastructure.
Segmentation 5: by Region
Based on region, North America is expected to continue as the highest contributor to aviation emissions in the most likely scenario (Scenario 4). The emissions from Asia-Pacific are expected to increase, while the Europe region's flight emissions will reduce with the regionwide adoption of decarbonization measures such as SAF adoption and intramodal travel.
Recent Developments in Aviation Emissions Control
Demand - Drivers and Limitations
The following are the demand drivers for Aviation Emissions Control:
The following are the challenges for Aviation Emissions Control:
The following are the opportunities for Aviation Emissions Control:
How can this report add value to an organization?
Product/Innovation Strategy: The chapter on estimation and comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation builds on the global fleet and global flight projections to forecast the industry's emissions. Four scenarios of emissions capturing the response of the aviation industry and the corresponding emissions from their operations are presented: No emissions control scenario (scenario 1), Optimistic scenario (scenario 2), Ideal scenario (scenario 3), and the Most likely scenario (scenario 4). Each of them has emissions values from the 12 possible fleet-flight segments comprised of four aircraft types (narrowbody, widebody, turboprop, and regional jet) and three flight segments (long, medium, and short-haul) based on emissions control measures in each scenario. This enables aircraft manufacturers and airline operators to understand the tangible impact of decarbonization strategy on various fleet-flight emissions. As such, these participants can assess the impact of the adoption of current and future emissions control measures ranging from SAF adoption to the maturation of liquid hydrogen-based propulsion.
Growth/Marketing Strategy: There is an increased urgency to address the emissions from all industrial sectors and within aviation to reach a net-zero goal by 2050. In order to achieve this, there has been a significant increase in green aviation developments by key players operating in the market, such as business expansion activities, contracts, mergers, partnerships, collaborations, and joint ventures. The favored strategy for the companies has been MoUs and joint-research agreements to strengthen their position as part of the aviation emissions control methods. For instance, in November 2022, major aerospace companies Airbus, MTU AeroEngines, Pratt & Whitney, Collins Aerospace, and GKN formed a global consortium to accelerate the development of next-generation propulsion technology. The key objective is the development of a Sustainable Water-Injecting Turbofan Comprising Hybrid-Electrics (SWITCH), which will substantially reduce emissions in the full operational envelope of the aircraft. The final engine is also expected to be fully compatible with alternative fuels such as hydrogen and SAF.
Competitive Strategy: Key players in aviation emissions control analyzed and profiled in the study involve aircraft manufacturers, subsystem manufacturers as well as airline operators. Moreover, a detailed competitive benchmarking of the players has been done to help the reader understand how players stack against each other, presenting a clear market landscape. Additionally, comprehensive competitive strategies such as contracts, partnerships, agreements, acquisitions, and collaborations will aid the reader in understanding the untapped revenue pockets in the market.
Key Market Players and Competition Synopsis
The companies that are profiled have been selected based on inputs gathered from primary experts and analysis of the company's coverage, product portfolio, and market penetration.
The top segment players leading the market are established players in the aviation emissions control, who constitute 100% of the presence in the market.
Key Companies Profiled
Company Type 1: Aircraft and Subsystem Manufacturers
Company Type 2: Airline Operators