Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2023-2028

Description

"The increasing demand for data, fuelled by improving access to new technologies, will drive revenue growth in Sub-Saharan Africa."

Telecoms revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will grow strongly between 2023 and 2028. This report analyses the key drivers and market developments behind this growth.

This report provides:

a 5 -year forecast of around 200 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 10 key countries
an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
a summary of results and key implications for mobile and fixed operators.

Geographical coverage:

Region modelled

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

Countries modelled individually

Cameroon
Cote d'Ivoire
Ghana
Kenya
Nigeria
Rwanda
South Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia

Key performance indicators:

Connections

Mobile:

total (handset plus mobile broadband, excluding IoT), total including IoT, business
handset: smartphone, basic, smartphone share of handsets
mobile broadband
total, handset and broadband: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
total and handset: prepaid, contract and prepaid share
IoT
penetration: total, prepaid, contract, handset, smartphone, mobile broadband, IoT

Fixed:

voice: narrowband, VoBB, dial-up
broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, total business connections
penetration: voice, broadband (business sites and households)

Pay TV

operator, traditional

Traffic

Outgoing minutes (fixed and mobile), MoU
Cellular data and messaging traffic

Network-independent metrics

GDP
Population
Households
Business sites
Exchange rates

Service revenue

Mobile:

total
share of GDP
per capita per month
prepaid, contract, prepaid share
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)

Fixed:

total (retail plus wholesale)
share of GDP
per capita per month

Retail revenue

Mobile:

total
share of GDP
per capita per month
per GB
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
voice, voice per minute
data, data per GB
handset: total, voice, messaging, data, prepaid, contract, prepaid share
mobile broadband
IoT

Fixed:

total
share of GDP
per capita per month
voice
dedicated connections
broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies

ICT services

Pay TV

operator, traditional

Wholesale revenue

Mobile
Fixed

ASPU

Mobile:

total
voice
data
mobile broadband
IoT
handset: total, prepaid, contract, voice, messaging, data

Fixed:

voice
broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies

ARPU

Mobile:

total
prepaid, contract
business, residential
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

About the author:

Stephen Day, Analyst.

Stephen is a member of Analysys Mason's Regional Markets research practice and is based in London. He contributes to the production of historical and forecast data, particularly for Europe as part of our Telecoms Market Matrix programme. He produces and reviews the data and assists with its publication in the DataHub, Analysys Mason's online database. He also authors articles with a focus on operators' pricing strategies and opportunities for ARPU growth. He holds a BSc in mathematics from Durham University.